Kolkata, February 28 The publication of West Bengal’s post-SIR electoral rolls has not only pruned 63.66 lakh names from the electorate, but it has also redrawn the state’s demographic and political landscape ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, reshaping voter profiles across districts, border areas, and key constituencies just weeks before the campaign begins.
With the electorate reduced from 7.66 crore to just over 7.04 crore – a 8.3 per cent decrease – and 60.06 lakh names placed under review, the state enters a fluid pre-poll phase marked by significant voter changes.
The deletions are geographically concentrated and politically significant.
“The SIR exercise introduces three key factors into the 2026 contest: demographic filtering in border areas, focus on social coalitions in Matua and minority districts, and recalibration in urban and Junglemahal regions that have seen BJP’s expansion since 2019,” said political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty.
The SIR has reshaped voter profiles across border districts, refugee-dominated areas, minority-heavy regions, tribal zones, and key urban constituencies. In a state where dozens of seats were decided by margins of 2,000–5,000 votes in 2021, even marginal shifts in the rolls have significant implications.
The most significant changes are visible in districts bordering Bangladesh, where citizenship and migration issues have shaped the contest between the TMC and the BJP.
In Nadia, 2.73 lakh names were deleted, reducing the electorate from 44.18 lakh to 41.45 lakh. North 24 Parganas saw its voter base shrink by nearly 10 lakh, from roughly 83 lakh to 73.88 lakh, with around six lakh names under review.
In Muslim-majority Malda, the electorate fell from 32 lakh to 29.88 lakh, with nearly nine lakh names under review. Murshidabad recorded 2.93 lakh deletions from a base of 57.64 lakh voters, while 11 lakh names remain under scrutiny. South 24 Parganas, the state’s largest district electorally, saw draft deletions of over 8 lakh, with around five lakh names pending review.
Together, these districts influence more than 125 seats in the 294-member assembly. Minority-heavy regions such as Murshidabad, Malda, and the two 24 Parganas have traditionally delivered substantial leads to the TMC, often offsetting BJP gains in North Bengal and Junglemahal.
“If even a portion of the 60.06 lakh names under review are concentrated in these border and minority regions, the final adjustments could redraw constituency margins in a state where several seats in 2021 and 2024 turned on a few thousand votes, small changes in inclusion or exclusion can determine the outcome,” said another political analyst, Suman Bhattacharya.
The changes have been most pronounced in the Matua belt across North 24 Parganas, Nadia, and North Bengal, where leaders claim that nearly 90 per cent of the community has been affected – an assertion that, if proven true, could influence 40–50 seats where the Dalit Hindu refugee bloc forms the BJP’s core voter base.
For the BJP, the review process is both a strengthening and a risk, reinforcing its CAA stance while potentially alienating refugee voters. For the TMC, deletions in border and minority-heavy districts trigger urgent adjustments at the booth level to protect its turnout-driven strategy.
In effect, the review process has introduced a layer of uncertainty into districts that traditionally anchor the TMC’s statewide strategy while serving as the BJP’s main expansion zone. The 2026 election, therefore, may hinge on how these demographic changes impact these politically sensitive regions.
The TMC’s lead over the BJP narrowed from around 61 lakh in the 2021 assembly elections to roughly 42 lakh in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The 2026 election is thus not a repeat of the landslide victory of 2021 but a contest shaped by tightening bipolarity.
In Kolkata’s urban core, traditionally a TMC stronghold, deletions have also drawn attention. The seven Assembly segments in North Kolkata saw around 4.07 lakh deletions.
Across four South Kolkata constituencies – Bhabanipur, Kolkata Port, Rashbehari, and Ballygunge, the electorate dipped from 6,91,306 in the draft to 6,88,099 in the final phase, with 78,657 names under review.
In Bhabanipur, represented by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, 47,094 names were removed from the draft and final lists, with over 14,000 electors still under review. These deletions represent a reduction of roughly 11,000 votes compared to Banerjee’s 2021 bypoll victory margin of over 58,000 votes.
However, in Nandigram, a high-voltage constituency represented by Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, the final rolls show a net addition of 770 voters compared to the draft list, bringing the electorate to 2,68,378. In 2021, Nandigram was decided by just 1,956 votes.
Paschim Medinipur saw a total of over 2.21 lakh deletions, with over one lakh names still under review.
Jalpaiguri in north Bengal recorded deletions of roughly 1.5 lakh since the SIR began, bringing its electorate down to around 17.48 lakh. Alipurduar in north Bengal recorded 1,02,835 deletions, with 11,96,651 names featured in the final rolls. These areas, particularly Junglemahal and north Bengal, were key growth zones for the BJP in 2019 and 2021.
“The more significant number is not the deletions that have already been counted, but the names still under review – a pending ledger that could continue to reshape booth arithmetic even as the campaign gains momentum,” said a TMC leader.