Despite the BPF's landslide victory in the Bodoland Territorial Council elections, the political landscape in this western Assam region appears fluid ahead of the assembly elections. No clear frontrunner is emerging, even as the NDA seeks to leverage its alliance with the Bodoland People's Front across 15 seats.
The BJP-led alliance enters the fray with a perceived advantage, relying on its renewed partnership with the regionally dominant BPF, but local dynamics and the influence of regional parties like the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) continue to keep the contest open.
National parties, including the BJP, have made limited inroads into the electorate, with the BPF and UPPL remaining the principal contenders, while the Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to play a marginal role.
The BTC, an autonomous body under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, administers Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri, and Tamulpur districts.
In a significant realignment, the BJP parted ways with its former ally, the UPPL, and re-inducted the BPF into the NDA fold after the latter's emphatic victory in the BTC polls in October last year.
The Hagrama Mohilary-led BPF, a dominant force in BTC politics since 2005, has remained a key ally in successive state governments, regardless of whether the Congress or the BJP was in power in Dispur.
Although initially excluded from the current government, the BPF later provided support to the government within the assembly before formally joining the ruling alliance.
"The BPF may have secured a resounding mandate in the BTC elections, winning 28 out of the 40 seats just at the end of last year. However, this does not mean that it will sweep the assembly elections," said Prahash Sharma, a Kokrajhar-based entrepreneur associated with various local civil society bodies.
While the BPF has a lead over the UPPL, observers say that the latter cannot be discounted despite its recent electoral setback.
"Of course, the BPF has a lead over its main rival, the UPPL. But, even though the UPPL was voted out just six months ago, it cannot be ruled out from making a significant impact on the BPF's electoral prospects," he said.
The seat-sharing arrangements reflect the shifting alliances, with the BPF contesting 11 seats and the BJP four, while the UPPL has fielded 17 candidates, covering all 15 constituencies in the BTC region.
Within the opposition bloc, the Congress is contesting the majority of seats, leaving one each to the Raijor Dal and the CPI(M).
In the outgoing assembly, the UPPL has seven MLAs from the region, followed by the BPF with three, and the BJP with two. The elections are being held for the first time after the 2023 delimitation exercise, which redrew constituency boundaries.
Local observers believe the opposition's prospects hinge on effective vote transfer among allies.
"In a couple of constituencies with a significant Muslim population, the Congress and its allies may pose a challenge to the NDA or the UPPL. However, whether the opposition candidates will emerge victorious remains to be seen," said Utpal Deka, a former teacher from Tamulpur.
The role of Adivasi and tea tribe voters is also expected to be crucial in several constituencies, with consolidation of these votes likely to influence outcomes.
"We need to consider the smaller parties as well as independent candidates contesting as Independents. They may prove to be a spoiler for the larger players and create close contests," Sharma said.
He added that Bengali-speaking Hindu voters, traditionally seen as BJP supporters, could tilt the balance in favor of the NDA, although the party had struggled to make an impact in the BTC polls when contesting alone.
Both Sharma and Deka emphasized that voting behavior varies across the council, assembly, and parliamentary elections, with electors often factoring in the alignment of regional parties with the ruling dispensation in Dispur.
"The BPF aligning with the BJP, which is seeking a third consecutive term in the state, may encourage voters to choose them over the UPPL," Sharma said.
Tamulpur has emerged as a key battleground, with BJP Speaker Biswajit Daimary competing against UPPL chief and former BTC head Pramod Boro.
Deka maintained that it will be a close contest, with Daimary having the advantage of BPF's backing, while Boro has the "local" sentiment in his favor.
The Kokrajhar seat is also drawing attention, where BTC Chief Mohilary's wife, Sewli, is making her electoral debut and is seen to have an advantage.
Polling for the 126-member Assam assembly will be held on April 9, with counting scheduled for May 4.