The upcoming Assam assembly elections are likely to be crucial, with the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress's allies playing a significant role.
Besides the BJP, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state consists of the All Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) with nine seats, the United People's Progress Party (UPPL) with seven seats, and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) with three seats.
Four parties – the Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) – have agreed on a seat-sharing arrangement and will campaign jointly in the upcoming elections. The CPI(M) has one seat, while the AJP and APHLC have none.
The Assam Regional Party (ARPA) secured 16 seats in the last elections, and its president, Akhil Gogoi, won the party's lone seat in the assembly. However, he contested as an independent candidate.
Here's a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis of these parties:
ALL ASSAM GANA PARISHAD (AGP):
* STRENGTHS: The AGP's primary strength is its membership in the NDA and its three seats in the state cabinet. It is likely to benefit from the BJP's support. The party, which focuses on regional issues, aims to sway the dominant Assamese electorate.
* WEAKNESSES: Internal conflicts within the party are a major concern, with several senior members expressing discontent over the limited number of cabinet positions and the repeated election of one person to the Rajya Sabha. The party's support base has declined, and its representation in the state assembly has decreased from 14 in the 2016 polls to nine in 2021. The party has also been accused of attempting to woo MLAs from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which primarily consists of Bengali-speaking Muslim immigrants.
* OPPORTUNITIES: The AGP's opportunity lies in its alliance with the ruling BJP and in highlighting the achievements of the outgoing government, where three of its members are ministers.
* THREATS: The party faces threats from its own disgruntled members and from its departure from its regional focus.
BODOLAND PEOPLE'S FRONT (BPF):
* STRENGTHS: The BPF's strength is its recent win in last year's Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) elections. The party will leverage this in the upcoming polls and aims to win 15 seats in the region, which includes districts like Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri, and Tamulpur.
* WEAKNESSES: The BPF will face strong opposition from the United People's Progress Party (UPPL), another NDA ally, which is expected to contest all 15 seats. Both parties have a base in tribal Bodo communities.
* OPPORTUNITIES: The BPF will capitalize on its council election win and attempt to gain an advantage over its opponents, as well as consolidate support among the dominant Bodo voters.
* THREATS: The BPF faces threats from the UPPL, which may attempt to sway tribal voters, and from the non-Bodo electorate, which could lead to vote division in constituencies within the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR).
ALL INDIA ULFA (PROMINENT):
* STRENGTHS: The AIUDF, as part of the 'Mahajot', won 16 assembly seats in the 2021 polls, emerging as a significant opposition party after the Congress. The party aims to maintain this position in Muslim-majority constituencies. Its strength lies in its base in constituencies with a predominantly Bengali-speaking migrant electorate.
* WEAKNESSES: The AIUDF is no longer part of any alliance, and its popularity has waned considerably, as evidenced by the Lok Sabha polls, where its president, Badruddin Ajmal, lost the Dhubri seat to Congress's Rakibul Hussain by over 10 lakh votes.
* OPPORTUNITIES: The AIUDF will attempt to capitalize on the recent desertions from the Congress, which also has a strong voter base among Bengali Muslims, and to bring back some of its former supporters.
* THREATS: The AIUDF faces threats from its own disgruntled members, some of whom are considering joining the AGP, and from the dissatisfaction among its supporters who feel the party has not adequately addressed their concerns.
RAIJOR DAL:
* STRENGTHS: The Raijor Dal's strength lies in its grassroots support in certain constituencies in Upper Assam. Its president, Akhil Gogoi, won the Sivasagar seat as an independent candidate in the last assembly polls, despite being in jail due to his alleged involvement in violence during protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in December 2019.
* WEAKNESSES: The failure to reach a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress poses a threat, potentially leading to vote division in favor of the BJP.
* OPPORTUNITIES: The party can leverage the defection of senior Congress members in Upper Assam constituencies, and its organizational base may also provide some support.
* THREATS: The lack of experience in electoral politics and the failure to secure a seat-sharing agreement with opposition parties, particularly the Congress, could be advantageous for the BJP.