Kolkata, March 15 – Aggression and novelty have been hallmarks of West Bengal elections. We look at the issues that are likely to be central to the campaigns of political parties.
Bengali sub-nationalism: Before the SIR exercise gained prominence in Bengal, the TMC aggressively campaigned, both on the streets and in legal settings, against alleged coordinated attacks on Bengali-speaking migrants in BJP-ruled states.
The tried-and-tested "outsider" plank against the BJP has been successful in previous elections for the TMC. The issue of Bengali sub-nationalism in the context of migrant persecution is an extension of the TMC's previous attempts to isolate the BJP from Bengal's political landscape and establish itself as a champion of Bengali identity.
In July last year, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee led a major rally in Kolkata against what the TMC described as the BJP's "assault on Bengali identity." She has consistently criticized the BJP following instances of alleged torture, detention, and deportation of Bengali migrants across the country.
The TMC has spearheaded legal battles in the Calcutta High Court and the Supreme Court against alleged deportations of Bengali-speaking Indians and has achieved limited success in bringing back those deported. The case of Sunali Bibi, one of the six deported residents and her minor son, is a prime example.
The Matua factor: The Matuas, a Hindu refugee community with significant influence in approximately 50 assembly seats across Bengal, have emerged as a key electoral bloc. In the 2021 assembly elections, a majority of these seats were won by the BJP, helping the party secure 77 seats, with a strong support base that continued during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The large-scale deletion of names during the SIR process raised concerns among voters in Matua-majority areas, rekindling anxieties about identity, documentation, and electoral inclusion for the community members who migrated from present-day Bangladesh decades ago.
Urban anger/anti-incumbency: When Rimjhim Sinha, a Kolkata-based Sociology researcher, called for a "Reclaim the Night" movement on social media following the rape and murder of a medical intern at RG Kar Hospital in 2024, little did she know that her message would spread rapidly, igniting discontent among a cross-section of urban women, youth, and even senior citizens against the state's ruling establishment.
The spontaneous on-street protests that followed in urban and semi-urban areas of Bengal lasted for months. The movement demanded justice for the victim, workplace safety reforms, and the right for women to occupy public spaces at night. The widespread anger, primarily directed against the TMC's control over state-run institutions, was unprecedented.
While the state's main political opposition was kept outside the protest domain, the TMC faced challenges in containing the social resistance from taking political form.
With setbacks in corruption cases, a persistent crisis in the state's job sector, failure to attract significant investments, and address brain drain, Banerjee faces her biggest challenge to retain power.
Industry and employment: The opposition BJP alleged "flight of industry" and branded the state an "industrial graveyard". Party leaders claim that over 6,000 companies have shifted out of Bengal during the past 14 years, and only around 3 per cent of investment proposals from the state's business summit have materialized, turning the state into a "labor-exporting economy".
The TMC counters this claim by promoting a "Bengal model" centered on MSME expansion, infrastructure development, and relatively lower unemployment. It cites an unemployment rate of about 3.6 per cent, lower than the national average, and a projected GSDP growth of around 12 per cent, higher than the national average, as evidence of strong economic momentum.
The crisis in the jute belt districts, such as Hooghly, Howrah, and North 24 Parganas, where raw material shortages led to the closure of mills and production curtailment, has resulted in job losses.
Social welfare schemes: A range of social welfare schemes by the TMC government could play a crucial role in the elections. These initiatives aimed at unemployed youth, women, farmers, students, workers, and marginalized communities have yielded positive results in past elections and may influence the outcome of the upcoming polls. Several of these schemes involve direct cash transfers and benefits delivered at the grassroots level.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC won 215 seats, up from 188 in the 2016 state polls, while the BJP won 77 seats, up from 32.
Currently, following multiple defections, resignations, and bypolls, the TMC has 223 seats in the assembly, with support from one MLA from the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha. Partha Chatterjee, a suspended TMC leader, continues to be an Independent MLA in the House.
The BJP's numbers in the state assembly have reduced to 64, primarily due to defections to the TMC. The Indian Secular Front and the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party hold one seat each. Three seats remain vacant due to the deaths of sitting MLAs.