Kolkata, March 15 The BJP's repeated attempts to unseat the ruling TMC in West Bengal have fallen short in the last two Assembly elections, leaving a somewhat bitter taste of a "so-close-yet-so-far" feeling among its leaders and workers, poll observers say.
Even as the Assembly elections present the BJP with another opportunity to gain power in the state, an assessment of the party's strengths and weaknesses, the opportunities it carries, and the challenges it faces in the run-up to the polls offers deeper insights into the strategies the saffron brigade hopes to use to achieve its goals in the state.
Strengths
The BJP's strength in West Bengal stems from its role as the primary opposition to the ruling TMC, which is driven by the state's anti-incumbency sentiment and a high-profile central leadership led by Prime Minister Modi. The party has gained traction through its ideological focus on Hindutva, while also addressing issues of corruption and law and order.
In the past decade, election results in Bengal show that the BJP has successfully absorbed the traditional support of the Left and Congress parties, establishing itself as the state's principal opposition.
From a party that garnered only 5% of the vote in 2001 and won just three seats after contesting in 291 constituencies in 2016, the party now commands over 39% of voter support, with 12 MPs and over 65 MLAs. Its peak came in 2019 when the party won 18 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal.
The party has gained ground by focusing on alleged corruption within the TMC government – consistently highlighting issues like the school job scam – and countering the lack of political space for the opposition. The party has also consistently raised concerns about law and order, particularly regarding crimes against women.
However, the party's biggest electoral gains have come from its success in polarizing the electorate, with a clear focus on Hindutva.
Weaknesses
It seems ironic that one of the BJP's greatest electoral strengths – the presence of charismatic central leaders – has often been countered by the TMC. The Mamata Banerjee campaign, which targeted outsiders, has been successful in swaying voters, and has allowed the BJP to accuse its rivals of cultural disconnect.
In fact, the party's heavy reliance on divisive issues like the CAA-NRC, promoted by the "North Indian model," has often worked against the party's prospects, analysts have observed.
The BJP's push for the Election Commission's SIR exercise could also erode its support base among loyal voters, such as the Matuas, who find themselves on the list of those affected by the final (though incomplete) voter rolls.
Repeated factionalism within the BJP's West Bengal unit, marked by conflicts between its long-standing members and newcomers (mostly TMC defectors), has cost the party dearly in past elections.
The biggest weakness of the BJP in Bengal is its weak grassroots organizational structure. Compared to the TMC's strong presence at the grassroots level, which provides a clear advantage, the BJP's efforts to strengthen its grassroots organization have so far been unsuccessful.
Despite figures like Suvendu Adhikari leading the party in the state, the party has failed to establish a universally accepted leader who can match Mamata Banerjee's popularity and charisma.
Opportunities
Despite its weaknesses, the BJP has significant opportunities ahead, including capitalizing on anti-incumbency sentiment, promising to fill vacant and cancelled recruitment positions for youth, and leveraging its strong, established opposition presence since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Brewing discontent among voters on issues like corruption, law and order, and development provides the BJP with an opportunity to consolidate its support against the TMC.
The party also has the opportunity to gain ground within the declining support base of the Left and Congress parties, positioning itself as the only viable alternative to the ruling TMC.
Most importantly, the party's promises to fill all vacant and cancelled positions, particularly in the education sector, to address the unemployment issues of the state's youth, gives the saffron party a credible chance against the ruling dispensation.
Threats
The foremost challenge before the BJP is to overcome the TMC's strong grassroots organizational structure and ensure that its supporters vote in a peaceful environment.
Convincing voters to accept the BJP in power, without a credible leader like Mamata Banerjee, could be another daunting task.
Banerjee's campaign against the Election Commission's SIR exercise could put the BJP at a disadvantage, despite the party's hopes that the exercise would favor them.