Bond Yields Fall Amid US-Iran Ceasefire and RBI Status Quo

Bond Yields Fall Amid US-Iran Ceasefire and RBI Status Quo.webp

Mumbai, April 8 Indian bond yields eased by around 0.12 percent on Wednesday, following the conditional two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates unchanged.

The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond, GS 2035 at 6.48 percent, fell to 6.92 percent during the morning trading session, from 7.04 percent, according to the Clearing Corporation of India.

The bond market sentiment improved after the ceasefire in the Middle East between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp correction in Brent crude oil prices in the international market, reducing the risk of imported inflation for India.

Currently, Brent crude oil prices are trading at USD 94.94 per barrel, down from over USD 100 in the last few days.

The ceasefire in the Middle East conflict is conditional, involving a two-week ceasefire, during which shipping traffic will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.

This came after more than a month after the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran, and hours after Donald Trump threatened to wipe out an entire civilization due to Iran's defiant posturing.

Bond yields received further support after the central bank in April's monetary policy kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.

This policy decision comes as a month and a-half-long West Asia conflict has disrupted energy supplies, driven up crude oil prices, and created fiscal and inflationary pressures for import-dependent nations like India.

This is the first monetary policy review after the government announced a new inflation target for the RBI last month. The government has asked the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2 percent on either side for another five years ending March 2031.

Since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, bond yields have hardened by about 0.33 percent. Since then, bond yields have been trading above the 7 percent mark, reflecting sustained selling pressure in the bond market across various investor bases.
 
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brent crude oil prices ceasefire financial markets government of india securities gs 2035 india india bond yields india economy inflation interest rates middle east conflict monetary policy reserve bank of india strait of hormuz us-iran relations
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