New Delhi, February 18 Climate change is adversely impacting the world's major coffee-growing regions with high temperatures reducing harvests and contributing to higher prices of the popular beverage, according to a new report.
Coffee is one of the most sought-after non-alcoholic beverages in the world, with an estimated 2.2 billion cups consumed every day. In the United States alone, at least two-thirds of adults drink coffee daily.
According to an analysis by Climate Central, a not-for-profit group of scientists and communicators who research and report on the changing climate and how it affects people's lives, the world's coffee supply is under growing pressure, and climate change is playing a significant role.
Climate Central analyzed temperatures from 2021 to 2025 and compared them to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution using the climate shift index. The analysis calculated the additional number of days per year that climate change pushed temperatures above the 30 degrees Celsius threshold across the major coffee-producing countries.
"When temperatures rise above this threshold, coffee plants experience heat stress that can reduce yield, affect bean quality, and increase the vulnerability of plants to disease. Together, these impacts can reduce the supply and quality of coffee and contribute to higher prices globally," the report said.
It noted that smaller harvests and higher prices hit smallholder farmers the hardest.
"Smallholder farmers account for about 80 per cent of global producers and about 60 per cent of global supply but (they) received just 0.36 per cent of the financing needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change in 2021. The average cost of adaptation for a one-hectare farm is USD 2.19 a day — less than the price of a cup of coffee in many countries," the report further said.
The top five coffee-producing countries—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—are responsible for roughly 75 per cent of the global coffee supply. The report noted that these five countries now experience coffee-harming heat for more than 144 days of the year on average.
"Without the influence of climate change, there would be about 57 fewer days each year with such heat. Changes to rainfall patterns can further stress coffee plants.
"Adequate and consistent rain is crucial for their growth. Annual rainfall totals between 59 and 79 inches are optimal, and droughts can reduce harvests," the report said.
A 2023 drought in Brazil has been linked to recent coffee price spikes. Pests and diseases such as coffee leaf rust and the coffee berry borer can also impact the quantity and quality of bean harvests. Shifting temperatures and rainfall patterns can influence their spread and management, it said.
As climate change brings more extreme heat, changes in rainfall patterns, and shrinks the land area that can be cultivated, farmers are forced to adapt.
"Most coffee growers are smallholders (farming less than about 12 acres of land) who may rely on this one crop for their livelihoods, making them particularly vulnerable to the agricultural impacts of climate change. Changing conditions threaten the amount of land available for coffee production.
"Land suitable for coffee farming may decrease by 50 pc by 2050 without adequate adaptation. The future range for coffee cultivation may migrate due to climate change. Current coffee-growing regions may become too warm over time, especially for heat-sensitive arabica," the report said.
The analysis pointed out that regions previously unsuitable for coffee farming, because of elevation and temperatures, may become better-suited in a warming world.
"While this could open economic opportunities in new areas, it could also result in deforestation as farmers pursue farmland at higher (cooler) elevations suitable for coffee cultivation. Sustainable agricultural practices can help farmers balance productivity with climate resilience.
"Planting a taller tree canopy that shades coffee plants can protect them from harmful heat. Plants grown in full sun produce higher yields but coffee grown under the shade of native trees has additional ecological benefits of providing wildlife habitat (especially for birds) and enriching soil," it said.