New Delhi, April 6 Among the four states and a Union Territory going to polls this month, the results of two – separated by a distance of almost 2,500 kms – will hold the key to the revival of two of the country’s once-significant political forces.
Based on on-ground media reports and political analysts' opinions, neither the ruling Grand Old Party, the Congress, nor the once-dominant Left parties have any realistic chance of gaining power in either Tamil Nadu or West Bengal.
In Tamil Nadu, both are contesting the April 23 Assembly election as junior partners in an alliance with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). In West Bengal, neither appears likely to hold a dominant position in the state Assembly.
The only possibility lies in Kerala, for either party; and in Assam, for the Congress.
Interestingly, both states will go to the polls on Thursday. In the southern state, the two leading coalitions have alternately held power in the last four decades – a record broken by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in 2021.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led alliance has won state elections in 1980, 1987, 1996, 2006, 2016, and again in 2021.
This was the first time in 40 years that an incumbent government returned to power twice in a row.
Overall, the LDF has won 6 out of 10 elections since the alliance was formed in 1980.
The year before that, then state Congress leader K. Karunakaran created the United Democratic Front (UDF) and came to power in 1981, returning in 1982 after a brief period of President's Rule.
The coalition has since won elections to the state legislature in 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2011. With no strong third contender, the mandate will likely favour one of the two alliances, providing a much-needed boost to either the Congress or the CPI(M) – both of which have seen a significant decline in their political base in recent years.
The May 4 results will determine whether the UDF can prevent the LDF from achieving another record – winning the state election for the third time in a row.
The Grand Old Party of India has been struggling, failing even to retain power in states like Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and suffering defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra.
Even in Delhi, the Congress could not capitalise on anti-Aam Aadmi Party sentiments, finishing a distant third.
A further loss would be a major setback for the Gandhi family, where Rahul is the prominent figure leading the Congress's attempt at revival, and Priyanka, who is making her high-profile entry into politics from the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency. Thus, a victory would be what the party would be aiming for, given the LDF's two successive terms in power and the state facing fiscal challenges.
For the Left, it is the last bastion after losing power in West Bengal and Tripura.
Meanwhile, in Assam, the contest is largely between two blocs – one led by the BJP and the other by the Congress, where the latter is desperately trying to win an uphill battle, struggling to maintain relevance in key constituencies.
Pre-election surveys have painted a grim picture for the party, but it is betting heavily on a Gaurav Gogoi-led revival after two successive defeats in the state.
Some on-ground reports suggest that high-profile exits have weakened the party’s organisational strength. Meanwhile, a split in minority votes after its separation from the perfume king Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) may not be beneficial for either.
