New Delhi, February 22 – India's crude import strategy is entering a phase of calibrated rebalancing rather than a sudden realignment, with Middle Eastern suppliers, led by Saudi Arabia, regaining market share, according to shipping data and analysts. This is happening even though Russian volumes remain significant, but are increasingly influenced by geopolitics and compliance constraints.
During February 1-18, India's total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8% from January's 5.25 million bpd, following US sanctions on key Russian exporters and the implementation of the 18th sanctions package by the European Union last month.
Ship tracking data showed Russian shipments to India declining from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January and further to around 1.09 million bpd in early February, representing a decrease of about 10% month-on-month.
"Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0-1.2 million bpd in February, gradually decreasing to approximately 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd in March," said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
The import of Russian crude, which India began to increase after the war in Ukraine in 2022, is seen stabilizing rather than collapsing.
"However, we continue to see this as a short-term stabilization rather than a return to the peak in mid-2025, and we expect Russia's share in India's crude slate to gradually stabilize to a lower range in 2026 compared to 2024-2025, given the increasing commercial and policy constraints," he said.
This assessment is based on reports of a pragmatic understanding between the United States and India that effectively allows "baseline" Russian imports while discouraging any significant expansion. Near-term volatility is expected to remain driven by sanctions risk, shipping constraints, and logistics rather than pure pricing dynamics.
As Russian volumes decrease, the Middle East Gulf region is filling the gap. Shipments from Saudi Arabia are set to reach 1 million to 1.1 million bpd in February – the highest since November 2019 – with month-to-date arrivals tracking even higher at around 1.4 million bpd before expected moderation into early March, Ritolia said.
Currently, Saudi Arabia is positioned as India's top supplier in February, followed by Russia and Iraq.
Post Ukraine war, Russia had replaced Iraq as India's biggest supplier, accounting for as much as 40% of all crude oil that India imported for processing into fuels like petrol and diesel, at its peak. The subsequent wave of EU and US sanctions has tapered imports from Russia.
The core of Russian oil imports is the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat. The unit, where Russia's Rosneft is the largest shareholder, has been cut off from other suppliers after the EU imposed sanctions on it due to its links with Moscow.
The unit now relies solely on Russia to meet its crude needs.
Ritolia said the expectation is that India can maintain volumes needed to support refinery operations and domestic fuel supply, but should avoid significantly increasing purchases beyond that baseline.
"In practice, this suggests that Russian flows will stabilize at a lower, but persistent level, especially until the trade deal between the US and India is finalized and signed, while India continues to diversify supply from incremental buying from Venezuela and Middle East barrels regain share, with Russian crude increasingly shaped by geopolitical and compliance factors rather than pure economics," he said.
From a market structure perspective, India is not positioned to fully replace Russian barrels without cost, he said.
"Russian grades have provided a rare combination of medium sour quality, stable availability, and discounted pricing, which has been particularly valuable for complex refiners optimised for sour processing," he said. "As India reduces Russian barrels, the overall crude cost is expected to go up by USD 2-3 per barrel; however, cheaper Venezuelan crude buying could partially offset this."
However, Venezuelan crude import will only be at a marginal or supplementary level and cannot replace Russian barrels.
"That said, Venezuelan supply is structurally constrained by production limits, logistics, and compliance risks, so it is unlikely to fully replace Russian volumes - but it can help reduce the cost impact at the margin if flows continue to build," he said.
With flows from Saudi Arabia rising to the highest level since November 2019, the immediate replacement for softer Russian flows has largely come from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia.
"While Saudi Arabia is currently positioned as India's largest supplier in February (till date), followed by Russia and Iraq, and as the month closes, we expect some moderation in volumes from Saudi Arabia and overall Volumes from Iraq and Saudi Arabia to be similar around 1-1.1 million bpd," he said, adding this is still a multi-year high.
