Kolkata, March 8 – The special intensive revision of electoral rolls in West Bengal has introduced a new political variable ahead of the assembly polls, with Election Commission data showing a marginally sharper decline in women electors than men – a shift analysts say could influence outcomes in closely contested constituencies.
Women voters, who constitute nearly half of the state’s electorate and have increasingly turned out in greater numbers than men, have emerged as the most decisive electoral bloc in the state’s politics over the past decade.
With cohesive voting patterns, a steady rise in turnout and welfare-driven political mobilization, women voters now form the backbone of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s electoral coalition – a support base the BJP is aggressively trying to breach.
According to EC data following the SIR of electoral rolls, the number of women electors stands at around 3.44 crore, down from 3.77 crore when the process began in November, while male voters declined from 3.89 crore to 3.60 crore. Overall, women account for nearly half of the state’s 7.04 crore electorate.
The drop among women voters is 8.7 per cent, marginally higher than the roughly 7.5 per cent decline among male electors.
Turnout data over the past two decades underscores their growing political weight. Women’s turnout stood at 80.75 per cent in 2006, rose to 84.45 per cent in 2011, climbed to 94.42 per cent in 2016, and in 2021 again slightly exceeded men’s participation, with women voting at 81.75 per cent compared to 81.37 per cent for men.
In several seats, the gender gap has been striking. In English Bazar, female turnout exceeded male participation by more than 21 percentage points in 2021, while some others recorded gaps of 17–19 percentage points.
Survey-based estimates from the 2021 assembly polls suggest the TMC secured more than 50 per cent of the women’s vote, while the BJP captured about 37 per cent.
“Any disproportionate deletions among women voters, even if marginal, could have implications in tightly contested seats where turnout differences often determine outcomes,” political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty said.
“Women voters in Bengal are no longer peripheral participants; they have become the most cohesive electoral bloc in the state. Welfare schemes, direct cash transfers and a sense of empowerment have created a strong political relationship between women voters and the state government,” said political analyst Suman Bhattacharya.
Economists described this trend as “Didi effect”, Banerjee’s personal appeal combined with a network of women-focused welfare programmes.
“These schemes have provided economic empowerment to women in lower-income households. When financial support reaches women directly, it often translates into political trust,” said an economist.
Central to the TMC’s strategy has been the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme, under which women receive monthly financial assistance. The state recently increased the grant by Rs 500, raising the allowance to Rs 1,500 for women in the general category and Rs 1,700 for SC/ST beneficiaries. The scheme currently covers about 2.50 crore women.
Senior TMC leaders said the party’s response to blunt the impact of deletions will be to intensify mobilization among women voters.
“Our goal will be to increase voter turnout. If turnout increases, and if women and Muslim voters vote in large numbers, then the BJP’s game is effectively over. We are organising our campaign sector-wise, focusing on social groups and governance issues, whereas the BJP is approaching it primarily through religious polarisation,” said state TMC vice-president Jaiprakash Majumdar.
Women voters have long formed one of the strongest pillars of the TMC’s support base, alongside minorities who account for about 30 per cent of the electorate. However, the opposition believes cracks may be emerging.
The Sandeshkhali controversy, which triggered protests over alleged atrocities against women, and the rape and murder of a junior doctor at RG Kar hospital, have sharpened the law-and-order debate and provided the opposition with potent campaign issues.
A senior BJP MLA admitted that the party had earlier struggled to connect with women but said the political mood could shift.
“Concerns about safety and dignity are now central political questions, and we believe women voters will respond to them,” she said.
The BJP has attempted to counter the TMC’s welfare pitch by promising expanded financial support for women and indicating that the Lakshmir Bhandar allowance could be raised to Rs 3,000 if it comes to power.
Aware that women voters form the bedrock of the TMC’s electoral strength, the BJP has also drawn up a strategy targeting beneficiaries of central welfare schemes such as free rations and housing.
Chakraborty said, "The contest for women’s votes could ultimately determine poll outcomes. Women voters cutting across caste, class and community divides have shown remarkable consistency in recent elections. If even a small portion of this bloc shifts, it can significantly alter the electoral arithmetic.”
Within the women electorate itself, analysts identify multiple layers: minority, rural and subaltern women, general caste women, and SC/ST voters, each carrying distinct political preferences.
“We do not look at women merely as a vote bank like the BJP. Our government has focused on economic and social empowerment,” said state minister Chandrima Bhattacharya.