Washington, March 21. Pakistan appears to be adopting a strategy of carefully distancing itself from the Middle East conflict, while signaling concerns about regional instability and carefully avoiding commitments that could lead to direct confrontation with Iran.
According to a report in the American magazine ‘The National Interest’, the sustainability of this approach would depend on the course of the conflict. While limited and geographically contained hostilities might allow Pakistan to maintain its current position, a broader regional escalation could significantly restrict its options.
The report notes that Pakistan's cautious approach is driven by economic concerns, including existing fiscal pressures and volatility in global energy markets, which could intensify domestic economic strain.
"Pakistan imports about 85 per cent of its crude oil, much of which comes from producers in the Gulf, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions in energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz. If hostilities in the Gulf disrupt maritime traffic, Pakistan would likely experience immediate consequences. Energy imports could become more expensive, intensifying inflation and putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves," it states.
"Because most of Pakistan's trade takes place by sea, maritime insecurity would also affect broader commercial activity. Rising insurance costs for shipping, delays in maritime transport, and supply chain uncertainty could deepen economic stress," it mentions.
The report asserts that the recent tensions in the Middle East have already contributed to an increase in fuel prices and inflationary pressures in Pakistan.
Pakistan's cautious stance is also driven by the broader strategic competition among external powers in the region.
The report highlights that Islamabad maintains close economic and military ties with China, alongside security cooperation with the United States, while the stability of the Gulf remains vital to the interests of multiple global actors whose energy supplies depend on "uninterrupted maritime flows".
"A wider regional war," it says, "would therefore place Pakistan in a particularly sensitive position, caught between competing strategic relationships and facing immediate economic exposure to disruptions in Gulf energy routes."
The report further states, "Pakistan's response illustrates a broader reality of the expanding Israel-Iran confrontation. Many regional states are not choosing sides so much as trying to manage their exposure to a conflict that threatens their own economic and security stability."