Mumbai, March 7 Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Saturday that the economic fallout of the ongoing Iran war could potentially exceed the global impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and asserted that the situation was escalating at an "uncomfortable" pace.
Addressing the Finland-India Business Summit, Stubb said that US President Donald Trump made his strategic assessment in Iran after feeling "empowered" following what he did in Venezuela, but it has turned out to be "more complicated." He also said that the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei would have an effect.
While asserting that for Finland, the key war to end right now is the one between Russia and Ukraine, he said that the conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel "is escalating at a pace which I feel is very uncomfortable."
"I don't think we have even begun to grapple with what the economic implications of this war would be. It could actually be much bigger than the economic implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine. So that's why you have to stay alert," Stubb said.
When asked if the Iran war would distract or dilute Trump's efforts to find peace in the Russia-Ukraine situation, Stubb said, "I think President Trump feels quite empowered after what he did in Venezuela and he's made his strategic assessment in Iran, thinking that he might be able to do the same thing. It turned out to be much more complicated. Although, he has now killed the religious leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) of Iran. And that will have an effect," he said.
Asked about the economic cost of war, Stubb said the most fundamental question that can be posed is on what is the cost of a human life.
"In Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, we're talking about over a million dead or wounded. Of course, the loss in the war in Iran is so far much, much more. You can't put a price tag on it," the Finnish President pointed out.
The problem with the transactional world is that diplomacy is not seen as a win-win, which makes it very difficult to make peace last, Stubb said, adding he was not very hopeful of seeing a ceasefire in Iran very soon.
People worry that this will lead to anarchy in Iran and an unstable Iran will, therefore, make the world an even more dangerous place, Stubb said.
"It is one of the scenarios obviously that we are looking at," he said.
Talking about regime change, he said it rarely happens in the air and probably requires boots on the ground.
"And then you have to ask yourself the question, what does regime change lead to? I would argue that in Afghanistan and Iraq, it led to an increase in violence and terrorism," Stubb asserted.
Stubb, who is on a four-day visit of India along with a delegation comprising ministers, senior officials and business leaders, said he has come with roughly 20 Finnish companies from diverse sectors as the target is to double the trade between both the countries.
Stressing that the framework for the trade is the FTA agreement between Europe and India, he said Finland is focused on Network System, Quantum Computing, Space and Satellite, circular economy, food products, among others.
Earlier in the day, Stubb interacted with students in the University of Mumbai and talked about the triangle of power, comprising the Global West, the Global East, and the Global South.
The Global South, which puts 125 countries together, is not a geographic collaboration, but a historical collaboration, many of them formerly non-allied states, many of them formerly developing countries, and many of them who felt they were not a part of the liberal order, he said.
"It is going to be the Global South that decides what the next world order will look like," President Stubb asserted.