Guwahati, March 15 The opposition Congress in Assam, plagued by defections, may face a difficult challenge in contesting the upcoming assembly elections, scheduled to be held in one phase on April 9, against the BJP. However, its state unit president, Gaurav Gogoi, has taken a defiant stand against the saffron party and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
The Congress, which has been out of power since 2016 after three previous consecutive terms, will have to contend with the BJP's strong organizational base, Sarma's proactive leadership, and various developmental initiatives and welfare measures that have enhanced the ruling party's chances in the assembly elections.
STRENGTHS:
The anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling party may be in the Congress' favor, but there are challenges that it plans to overcome by forming an alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad, the CPI(M), and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) to challenge the BJP.
The opposition Congress has the advantage of securing the support of minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims, as the ruling party's continued policies against this community have largely alienated them.
Gogoi's victory in the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency by a comfortable margin, despite the ruling BJP putting its entire machinery behind its party candidate in 2024, and the Congress again projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate and a candidate from the Jorhat assembly constituency this time, will significantly boost the party's morale.
The corruption charges against the ruling party, particularly the chief minister, some members of his family, and a few cabinet colleagues, are also likely to benefit the Congress.
WEAKNESSES:
The Congress has faced several setbacks in Assam in the last decade since the present chief minister left the party along with many others to join the BJP. The most recent blow came when former state president Bhupen Borah and three other MLAs joined the saffron party, while two others joined the Raijor Dal.
The opposition party's lack of a unified organizational structure, particularly at the grassroots level, will also be a disadvantage, as evidenced by the shifting of allegiance of tea garden workers—once its major vote bank—towards the BJP during assembly and parliamentary elections since 2014.
The chief minister's allegations against Gaurav Gogoi and his wife, Elizabeth Colburn, of having Pakistani links may also disadvantage the party in some parts of the state, particularly in rural areas.
OPPORTUNITIES:
The Congress' opportunity lies in capitalizing on the anti-incumbency sentiment to swing the outcome in its favor. It can do this by emphasizing the corruption charges against the ruling party and highlighting the humanitarian challenges faced by minority community members due to various government policies, especially eviction drives.
The party can also take advantage of the disgruntled elements within the ruling NDA alliance and induct them into the party.
The opposition party can also benefit from the ruling party's failure to grant Scheduled Tribe status to six communities—Tai Ahom, Chutia, Moran, Motok, Koch-Rajbongshi, and Tea Tribes (Adivasis).
THREATS:
The main threat to the Congress' quest for power in the state lies in the ruling party highlighting that its major electorate base is the Bengali-speaking Muslims, which does not resonate well with the dominant Assamese community.
The departure of prominent leaders and workers is a continuing threat that adversely affects the party.
The ruling NDA's organizational and administrative machinery also pose a challenge to the Congress.