New Delhi, March 16 India's merchandise exports decreased marginally by 0.81% year-on-year to $36.61 billion in February, and the trade deficit narrowed to $27.1 billion compared to the previous month.
The impact of the West Asia crisis will be reflected in the March data, as the conflict began on February 28. The data will be released in mid-May.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said that exports in March will likely decline due to logistical challenges amid geopolitical tensions.
The US and Israel's joint offensive against Iran has disrupted the movement of consignments in international waters, leading to a significant increase in oil prices, which has led to a sharp rise in air and ocean freight.
Imports increased by 24.11% to $63.71 billion in February due to a surge in gold and silver imports. Inbound shipments of gold rose by 218.55% to $7.44 billion, while silver imports increased by 285.23% to $1.66 billion.
India mainly imports yellow metal from Switzerland, with inbound shipments increasing by 719.3% to $2.71 billion in February.
Oil imports increased by 9% to $12.97 billion during the month.
The trade deficit has narrowed compared to the previous month, which was $34.68 billion. However, the gap has widened year-on-year from $14.05 billion recorded in February 2025.
Speaking about the trade data, Agrawal said that India's exports are performing well despite global economic challenges.
He said that India's exports during the April-February period of FY26 increased by 1.84% to $402.93 billion. Imports rose by 8.53% to $713.53 billion during the period.
The merchandise trade deficit during the 11-month period of 2025-26 has increased to $310.60 billion compared to $261.80 billion in the same month last year.
He added that the conflict will impact India's exports to West Asia.
"There are logistical challenges. The movement of ships...even air cargo also faces certain challenges because of disruptions in flights. So, it will have some impact."
"Indian exports to that region will suffer, and their imports from India will also suffer because they are also dependent on India for multiple product categories," he said.
Agrawal said that both sides are engaged in finding solutions to address these challenges.
He informed that the government is regularly seeking feedback from exporters and is looking at ways to resolve them.
Regarding overall export numbers, he said, "definitely" there will be some impact.
"At least there will be some impact on the potential exports....Overall export numbers that you are seeing, we have been holding that combined goods and services, we will be around $860 billion... I am sure we will remain in positive territory," he told reporters.
When asked about India's imports from Russia, the secretary said: "We are also buying Russian oil...there has been an increased buying from Russian oil also, in the current month also, because of the challenges we are facing."
Key sectors such as petroleum, plastics, textiles, leather goods, iron ore, spices, cashew, oil meals, oil seeds, and tea recorded negative growth in February in terms of exports.
However, shipments of rice, marine products, gems and jewellery, pharma, chemicals, engineering, and electronics have recorded positive growth.
According to the commerce ministry data, services exports are estimated at $39.53 billion compared to $31.65 billion in January 2025. Imports are estimated at $16.38 billion compared to $14.51 billion in the same month last year.
Speaking about the progress on the India-US trade deal, the commerce secretary said that the actual signing of the pact will be done when the new tariff architecture is in place.
"We are currently discussing the details with the US," Agrawal said.
Last month, both the US and India agreed on a framework for a trade deal.
Commenting on the data, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO President S C Ralhan said the escalating conflict in the Middle East has heightened global trade uncertainty.
"Disruptions in key maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, have forced vessels to reroute, increasing freight costs, insurance premiums, and transit times, thereby adding pressure on exporters," he said.
He added that close monitoring of geopolitical developments, maintaining smooth logistics connectivity and providing timely policy support will be essential to sustain export momentum.