New Delhi, March 11 India's purchase of Russian crude oil has surged by 50 per cent in March as New Delhi tapped alternative sources to compensate for the shortfall arising from disruptions in the Middle East amid an escalating military conflict.
India bought about 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil this month, up from 1.04 million barrels per day in February, according to ship tracking data.
India, the world's third-largest crude importer, sources 88 per cent of its oil needs from abroad. It consumes 5.8 million barrels per day, of which 2.5-2.7 million barrels come from Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE via the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz also carries 55 per cent of India's cooking gas (LPG) and 30 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG), used for power, fertilizers, CNG, and household cooking.
The ongoing conflict has largely halted shipments through the strait, forcing India to seek alternative crude sources from Russia.
"India was expected to import around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait of Hormuz in March. At the same time, we are seeing a notable increase in Russian barrels."
"Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1-1.2 million barrels per day (above the February volumes), which means the effective shortfall from the Strait of Hormuz narrows to around 1.6 million barrels per day," said Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler.
In 2025, India's net refined product exports averaged around 1.1 million barrels per day. Additionally, there has been a strong push to diversify crude sourcing from alternative suppliers.
"Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification and Russian flows. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable," he said, adding that the availability of LPG is the key variable to monitor in the coming weeks.
India consumes around 1 million barrels per day of LPG. Only 40-45 per cent is produced domestically, with the remaining 55-60 per cent being imported. Of these imports, around 80-90 per cent typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the supply chain particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.
"Refineries can optimise LPG output by shifting feedstocks away from petrochemical production towards LPG recovery, and by adjusting unit operations to maximize LPG yields," he said. "That said, such optimisation can only provide marginal incremental supply and cannot significantly reduce India’s reliance on LPG imports."
Even if refineries manage to increase LPG output by 10-20 per cent above current domestic production, domestic supply would only rise to roughly 47-50 per cent of total demand, leaving a significant gap that must still be filled through imports, he added, noting that while sourcing LPG from suppliers outside the Middle East is possible, voyage times are significantly longer, limiting how quickly disrupted cargoes can be replaced.
"The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical route for global LPG trade, and any disruption in the area immediately raises risks for LPG supply and shipping flows."
"A large share of LPG exports from the Middle East – particularly from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – passes through Hormuz, making the strait vital for Asian importers," he said. "India is one of the world's largest LPG importers and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supply, meaning any disruption in the region could tighten availability for the country."
India consumes around 900-1000 kilo barrels per day of LPG, of which 600 kbd is imported, with 80-90 per cent coming from the Middle East.