New Delhi, February 24 The Indian economy is expected to record a growth rate close to 8.1 per cent in the September-December quarter, according to a report released on Tuesday, under the revised series with the new base year of 2022-23.
The country witnessed a growth rate of 8 per cent in the first half of the ongoing financial year ending in March 2026.
According to the first advance estimate of the National Statistics Office (NSO) last month, real GDP is estimated to grow by 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26, compared to the growth rate of 6.5 per cent in the previous financial year.
The second advance estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27. Therefore, all the previous quarterly figures for the first and second quarters are expected to change with the change in the base year to 2022-23.
"High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent increase since the last festive season," a report from State Bank of India's Economic Research Department said.
"Overall, we expect real GDP growth of close to 8.1 per cent in Q3FY26. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision," it said.
It further said that the growth in deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) remains muted compared to credit growth.
According to the latest RBI data, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit grew by 14.6 per cent.
With the rise in the CD ratio, the gap between deposit and credit growth has increased, but such gaps are nothing new to the banking system, it said.
