New Delhi, March 13 Fitch Ratings on Friday marginally raised India's GDP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent for the current fiscal, citing strong domestic demand as the primary growth driver.
In December, Fitch had projected India's GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for the current fiscal.
For the next fiscal (2026-27), Fitch has revised its growth estimate upwards to 6.7 per cent, from the 6.4 per cent projected in December 2025.
In its Global Economic Outlook- March 2026, Fitch projected world GDP growth at 2.6 per cent in 2026, assuming that the Iran war does not lead to a larger or prolonged surge in energy prices, which would push the annual 2026 oil price forecast above USD 70/barrel.
"However, a scenario where oil prices rise to USD 100 and remain at that level would be a significant negative global supply shock," said Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Coulton.
Regarding India, Fitch said that there are tentative signs of slowing real activity in January and February, but the economy remains resilient, and credit growth is still in double digits.
Fitch expects growth to slow in the first half of FY 2026-27, with rising inflation constraining real incomes and limiting consumer spending growth.
GDP growth slowed in the December quarter to 7.8 per cent year-on-year from 8.4 per cent in the September quarter.
"We estimate that for the 2025-26 financial year (starting April 2025), growth will be 7.5 per cent, a marginal upward revision from December. Domestic demand is the primary growth driver this year, with consumer spending and investment rising by (an estimated) 8.6 per cent and 6.9 per cent in the current fiscal year," Fitch said.