New Delhi, March 31 Above-normal heatwave days are likely in some parts of eastern, central, and northwestern India, as well as the southeastern peninsula, between April and June, even as above-normal rainfall is expected in April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its monthly forecast on Tuesday.
Between April and June, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in most parts of the country, except for most parts of eastern and northeastern India, as well as eastern parts of central India and adjoining peninsular regions, where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.
"During the hot season (April-May-June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely in most parts of the country, except for some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely," said the IMD.
The department also stated that in April, monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal in most parts of the country.
However, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in many parts of eastern and northeastern India, as well as some parts of northwestern India and southern peninsular India, during the month.
Also, above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely in most parts of India, except for some isolated pockets in the southern peninsula, where normal minimum temperatures are likely during April.
Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, except for northeastern India, where below-normal rainfall is expected in many areas in April.
The long-period average (LPA) of rainfall over India during April, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 39.2 mm.
The IMD added that currently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
However, some of the atmospheric circulation features over the tropical Pacific are consistent with weak La Niña-like conditions.
The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue between April and June.
Thereafter, the probability of El Niño conditions developing gradually increases.
Reviewing the weather conditions that prevailed during March, the IMD said that rainfall over India during the month was the 10th highest since 2001.
This was because during March, eight western disturbances impacted the country, against the normal of five or six.
"This led to a reduction in maximum temperatures over most parts of the country. As a result, no heat wave conditions prevailed over the country during the second half of the month," said the IMD.
The department noted that a total of 32 people died in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Assam, Chhattisgarh, and Kerala, due to lightning events in March.
Four people died in Bihar and Odisha due to thunderstorms, and in Jammu and Kashmir, seven died as a result of snowfall events, and two were killed due to floods and heavy rainfall during March.