Thiruvananthapuram, March 15 After 10 years in opposition in Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is fighting for its political survival in the upcoming Assembly elections, aiming to unseat the LDF.
However, this will not be an easy task, as the Left Front is relying heavily on its development narrative, while the BJP-led NDA is also attempting to gain ground in the state ahead of the April 9 elections.
At the same time, with significant anti-incumbency sentiment and good performance in by-elections for the Lok Sabha and local bodies, the UDF is likely to have an advantage if it can coordinate its efforts.
STRENGTHS:
1. A decade-long anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF government, which was evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha and civic elections. Even supporters of the Left, such as L. Satchidanandan and Sara Joseph, have openly expressed concerns about the possibility of a Pinarayi Vijayan 3.0 government.
2. Performance in by-elections: The UDF won four out of five Assembly by-elections since 2021. It only lost at Chelakkara in 2024, which is a stronghold of the Left.
3. Strong victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 18 out of 20 seats in Kerala.
4. Consensus among allies, with no major disagreements over seat allocation, a recurring issue in previous Assembly elections.
5. More leaders and parties from rival fronts have joined the UDF in recent years.
WEAKNESSES:
1. Internal factionalism: Although the Congress (A) faction, previously led by A. K. Antony and later Oommen Chandy, has lost much of its influence within the party, political observers say there is still internal friction within the Congress (I) group, previously led by the late K. Karunakaran. Leaders such as K. C. Venugopal, K. Sudhakaran, and Ramesh Chennithala have their own supporters.
2. Lack of a clear Chief Ministerial candidate, unlike the LDF, which is projecting Pinarayi Vijayan.
OPPORTUNITIES:
1. Strong consolidation of minority votes, with Muslim and Christian voters likely to move towards the UDF in the upcoming elections.
2. With the BJP gaining strength in the state, the UDF hopes that the NDA will divide Hindu votes, which could affect the LDF's prospects and indirectly benefit the Congress-led front.
3. The UDF is also optimistic that the BJP's attempts to woo Christian voters did not yield significant results in recent local body elections.
4. In addition, the UDF will also try to capitalize on the Sabarimala gold theft incident, which has put the LDF government in a difficult position.
THREATS/CHALLENGES:
1. An intensive campaign by the LDF government highlighting development works and comparing them with the situation during the 2011-2016 UDF regime: This may attract some voters, even though such efforts did not yield the desired results in the civic body polls.
2. UDF leaders openly acknowledging that they have received support from Jamaat-e-Islami and the Welfare Party could alienate some Hindu and Christian voters.
3. Yet to gain the confidence of backward Hindu communities, particularly the Ezhava, which holds a significant share of votes in the state.
4. SNDP leader Vellapally Natesan has often been critical of the UDF and has shown a tilt towards the LDF, while the BDJS led by his son Thushar Vellapally remains an ally of the NDA.
5. The diminishing presence of the UDF in Thiruvananthapuram is another concern, with the BJP emerging as a key political force after the LDF.
6. The growing presence of the BJP in central Kerala districts such as Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha has become another challenge for the UDF.
7. Sexual assault allegations against expelled Congress MLA Rahul Mamkootathil.