Patna, March 30 JD(U) president Nitish Kumar's decision to give up his seat in the Bihar Legislative Council has sparked speculation about an impending change in leadership at the state's highest office.
Close aides of the 75-year-old leader have, for some time, been making cryptic remarks about a constitutional provision that allows a person to "remain as chief minister for up to six months after ceasing to be a member of the state legislature".
Such statements, even by senior ministers like Shravan Kumar, have fueled speculation that the JD(U), which has only four fewer MLAs than the BJP, could make a strong demand before allowing its alliance partner to claim the top post.
However, sources in the NDA say that it was unlikely that Kumar, who may be sworn in as a Rajya Sabha MP early next month, would remain in that position for that long, especially given that a change in leadership could only occur "after Kharmaas," the inauspicious month in the Hindu calendar that ends on April 14.
The BJP camp is thrilled at the prospect of finally having its "own chief minister" in the only Hindi-speaking state where the seat of power has remained elusive, despite the ruling coalition having been a member for nearly two decades.
The names of many potential candidates are being discussed, with Samrat Choudhary, the Deputy Chief Minister who holds the crucial Home portfolio, being the frontrunner.
Choudhary is a Koeri, a numerically significant OBC group that has not yet aligned with any particular party, unlike the Yadavs, who are staunch supporters of Lalu Prasad's RJD, or the Kurmis who revere Nitish Kumar.
BJP sources admit that by making a Koeri the CM, the party may secure the support of the dominant OBC group for a long time, as well as dispel the perception that it is a "pro-upper caste" political force, which would put it at a disadvantage in a state like Bihar, where politics has for decades been influenced by the Mandal agitation of the 1990s.
However, some veteran BJP members point out that Choudhary, whom Union Home Minister Amit Shah had famously promised to make a "big man" during the assembly elections, may not enjoy much support from the powerful Sangh lobby, given that he spent nearly two decades of his political career in RJD and JD(U) before joining the saffron party in 2017.
Another prominent name being considered is that of Nityanand Rai, a former state BJP president, who is understood to be a favorite of Shah, due to his position as Union Minister of State for Home.
Party sources also concede that while the new CM will be announced at a meeting of the legislative party, whenever it is held, the person occupying the seat of power will be "carefully chosen by those in power in Delhi".
They cite the example of Rajasthan, where a first-term MLA was made the CM after a Union Minister was rumored to have flown down to Jaipur carrying a small piece of paper with the name inscribed.
Meanwhile, JD(U) sources assert that they will insist on "a fair share" in the new cabinet, and the supremo's son Nishant Kumar, who joined the party only recently, is likely to be pushed for the Deputy CM's position.