New Delhi, February 27 – India's GDP growth estimate has been revised to 7.6% for the current fiscal year from 7.4%, following a government revision of the calculation methodology, including changes in the base year and incorporating data from the GST and e-Vahan portals, to better reflect economic activity.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the New Series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates on Friday, with a base year of 2022–23, replacing the previous series with a 2011–12 base year. This is the 9th revision of the GDP series.
According to the new series, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the October-December quarter of 2025-26 is estimated to grow by 7.8%, up from 7.4% in the previous year, primarily driven by the manufacturing and services sectors.
Furthermore, the GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised upwards to 8.4% from 8.2% in the previous series (with a 2011-12 base), while for the first quarter, it has been lowered to 6.7% from 7.8%.
"Real GDP, or GDP at Constant Prices, is estimated to reach Rs 322.58 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, compared to the First Revised Estimate (FRE) of Rs 299.89 lakh crore for the year 2024-25," MoSPI stated. The growth rate in real GDP is estimated at 7.6% for 2025-26, compared to 7.1% in 2024-25.
The new series provides the 'Second Advance Estimates of Annual GDP for FY 2025–26' and 'Quarterly Estimates of GDP from Q1 (April-June) of FY 2022-23 to Q3 (October-December) of FY 2025-26'.
Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 8.6% during 2025-26.
These growth rates have been revised upwards from their respective First Advance Estimates, which were based on the previous base year (2011-12), MoSPI stated.
The Ministry further noted that the economy has demonstrated sustained performance, recording real GDP growth rates of 7.2% and 7.1% in 2023–24 and 2024–25, respectively. Nominal GDP experienced growth rates of 11% and 9.7% in 2023–24 and 2024–25, respectively.
"The manufacturing sector has been the primary driver in contributing to the resilient performance of the economy over the past three financial years due to the re-based approach. This sector has experienced double-digit growth rates in 2023-24 and 2025-26," MoSPI stated.
The 'Trade, Repair, Hotels, Transport, Communication, and Broadcasting, Storage' sector is expected to have a growth rate of 10.1% at constant prices in 2025-26.
On the consumption side, both Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) are expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025-26.
The new series uses new data sources, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, Public Finance Management System (PFMS), E-vahan, which are more comprehensive and are available with a shorter time lag. These are being explored to augment existing data sources for compilation and corroboration of estimates.
Furthermore, MoSPI stated that the new series will use double deflation in the manufacturing and agriculture industries, and single extrapolation elsewhere.
This means that single deflation has been completely eliminated. Additionally, deflators will be used at a more granular level.
In the previous series, the household sector was estimated either through inter-survey growths or through some proxy indicators.
In the new series, level estimates of the household sector will be compiled through regular surveys – the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprise (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) – which are conducted each year.
Commenting on the new series, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA, said that according to the dataset on the new 2022-23 series, India's real GDP growth is estimated to have eased to 7.8% in the third quarter of FY2026 from 8.4% in the second quarter, although both numbers are healthier than what the rating agency had expected.
"The moderation was expectedly driven by the agriculture and the non-manufacturing industrial sectors, including mining, electricity, and construction segments. Encouragingly, manufacturing GVA expanded by double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 FY2026, while services GVA growth inched up to a 7-quarter high of 9.5% from 9.3% in the previous quarter," she said.
