Kolkata, March 24 West Bengal's minority vote bank, the political bedrock that powered the TMC's rise and helped the party sustain through election battles in the past 15 years, is showing signs of change ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, with smaller Muslim outfits, a resurgent Congress in North Bengal, and simmering grievances testing the ruling party's electoral stronghold.
For the first time in over a decade, multiple players are vying for a share of the roughly 30 per cent minority vote, a segment that influences outcomes in more than 114 of the state's 294 assembly seats.
Political observers say the emergence of players such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) led by Nawsad Siddique, suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir's AJUP aligning with AIMIM, and renewed Congress activity in Murshidabad and Malda has injected a new layer of uncertainty into Bengal's minority electoral arithmetic.
They say such a development could become one of the defining undercurrents of the 2026 polls.
“Earlier, minority voters consolidated behind the TMC almost instinctively, largely because of the BJP factor. But the emergence of new platforms and local grievances has created micro-level fissures that could hurt the ruling party in a tightly contested election,” political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
The tremors are most visible in the other Muslim-dominated districts of Uttar Dinajpur and parts of South Bengal, where smaller outfits have begun mobilizing support around questions of political representation, identity assertion, and local development.
The ISF, which shot into prominence in the 2021 assembly polls after winning the Bhangar seat, has been attempting to consolidate younger Muslim voters disillusioned with mainstream parties. Siddique, its lone MLA, has repeatedly accused both the TMC and the BJP of exploiting minorities electorally.
“Minorities are treated like milch cows that are used only during elections,” he said, alleging that the three-term TMC government has failed to deliver real development.
Adding another layer to the change is Humayun Kabir, the outspoken Murshidabad legislator who was suspended from the TMC after repeated attacks on the party leadership.
Kabir has floated the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) and is now aligning with AIMIM, positioning the combine as an alternative political platform for Muslim voters.
He believes the emotive issue of constructing a new Babri Masjid in Murshidabad, along with a growing sense of political assertion among Muslims, could influence the 2026 assembly polls.
He has even suggested that the next state government could, for the first time since Independence, see either a Muslim chief minister or a Muslim deputy CM.
“For establishing the Babri Masjid, if 100 Muslims go to vote, 80 of them will vote for candidates of the AJUP,” he told