Tel Aviv, April 11: Pakistan's push for de-escalation during the West Asia conflict is not just "abstract peace-making," but is rooted in the country's economic vulnerability to energy shocks. The rapid increase in fuel prices demonstrates how quickly external conflict can translate into domestic pain.
In an article for the 'Times of Israel' this week, Sergio Restelli, an Italian political advisor, author, and geopolitical expert, noted that as Pakistan grapples with "inflation, debt pressure, and chronic political instability," a sustained surge in imported energy costs would not only strain the system but could also destabilize it.
"For years, South Asia has treated war in the Gulf as a serious but external danger. When oil prices rise, remittances falter, diplomacy becomes tense, and the region adjusts. This time may be different. A prolonged war centered on Iran does not just threaten the Middle East. It also risks redrawing the strategic map of South Asia itself, especially along the already fractured belt that runs from Iran's eastern frontier through Pakistan's Balochistan and into Afghanistan," Restelli detailed.
According to the seasoned analyst, any unrest in West Asia poses a deeper risk for Pakistan's western front, given the role of Iran in Islamabad's security calculus.
"The two countries share a long, volatile border that cuts through one of the most unstable regions in the world. On both sides, there are under-governed peripheries, smuggling routes, militant networks, and separatist grievances that have never been fully contained. Iran's Sistan and Balochistan province has long been one of the Islamic Republic's most unstable regions, while Pakistan's Balochistan remains plagued by insurgency and mistrust of the center. A wider war with Iran would pour fuel on precisely those frontier dynamics that states struggle to control and armed groups know how to exploit," Restelli mentioned.
Highlighting the broader risks, he further added that amid the worsening ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there is a growing risk that both nations could be pushed into a prolonged state of strategic exhaustion from which recovery becomes harder with every passing year.
"Pakistan could become more dependent on external lenders, more militarized on its western flank, and more brittle internally. Afghanistan could be forced deeper into a cycle of displacement, isolation, and proxy vulnerability. Once such patterns harden, they do not disappear when the shooting stops. They become the new normal," the expert stated.
Restelli further said, "In that sense, Islamabad's call for an Iran ceasefire is not simply about calming today's crisis. It is about preventing the emergence of a new regional order that Pakistan may not survive in any meaningful strategic sense."