New Delhi, March 26 – As the Gulf conflict continues, disruptions in global fertilizer markets have once again highlighted the weaknesses in Pakistan's agricultural input security, according to local media reports.
While domestic production has shielded Pakistan from the worst effects of the urea shortage, this is not the case for diammonium phosphate (DAP). Reliance on imports leaves the agricultural economy vulnerable, according to an article in the Dawn newspaper.
In the case of urea, local production has helped farmers avoid reducing fertilizer use, which would have resulted in lower yields and higher food prices. However, DAP is a different matter. Pakistan produces only around 0.7 million tonnes annually, but needs more than 2 million, a gap it largely fills through imports from the Middle East. Under normal circumstances, this reliance is manageable, though expensive. However, in the current situation, it is a critical vulnerability, the article stated.
Unlike urea, where domestic stocks and continuous production provide a buffer, DAP imports are directly exposed to price volatility and logistical challenges. Supply disruptions, shipping constraints, and shortages of raw materials are already impacting global availability. Prolonged disruptions could sharply increase landed costs, limit availability during planting seasons, and force farmers to reduce application rates or switch to a suboptimal nutrient mix, the article observed.
The implications for agriculture are significant. DAP plays a crucial role in early-stage crop development, particularly for staple crops. Reducing DAP application cannot be easily compensated for by urea or other nutrients without compromising yields. In this sense, the DAP shortfall is not merely a supply issue; it is also a threat to output, farm incomes, price stability, and, by extension, food security, the article pointed out.
At a minimum, a continuous supply of gas to the existing DAP plant must be ensured. Beyond that, policymakers must revisit the broader incentive structure to encourage capacity expansion and gradually reduce import dependence. As geopolitical uncertainties persist, the gap between resilience and vulnerability will increasingly be defined by what the country can produce domestically and what it cannot, the article added.