New Delhi, March 2 – The fragile ceasefire between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan collapsed when the latter declared an open war with Kabul. The first round of strikes went in Pakistan's favour, and this boosted its army's morale.
Pakistan may be ahead of Afghanistan in terms of air power, but when it comes to ground troops, the Taliban is no pushover, as it has had experience fighting both the Soviets and allied forces.
Within the military circles, there is a growing call to change the government in Afghanistan. The Pakistanis have, without proof, blamed Afghanistan for backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Tensions have been high between the two sides, and the recent attempts by the Taliban to improve relations with India have also caused friction for the Pakistanis.
Officials say that there is a lot of discussion within the Pakistani establishment about changing the government. One official added that India is closely monitoring the situation as it wants stability in the region.
Under the circumstances, effecting a regime change in Afghanistan would be nothing short of a disaster for Pakistan, officials explained.
In the conflict with the Taliban, the Pakistanis made one crucial mistake, another official said. Pakistan began deporting Afghan refugees, including those who had lived in Pakistan for several decades. This move has caused major resentment among the Afghan people towards Islamabad.
Those Afghan people who did not support the Taliban are now backing the regime. Effectively, the sympathy wave that was caused by Pakistan's miscalculation has worked in favour of the Taliban, as the people are now supporting them, the official explained.
Now that the people of Afghanistan strongly support the Taliban, Pakistan's original plan to infiltrate Afghanistan has become almost impossible. Earlier, the Pakistanis had planned to use people who were opposed to the Taliban and use that to their advantage, which would have helped them to infiltrate the country.
An official from the Intelligence Bureau said that now that the plan seems difficult to execute, as the entire local population of Afghanistan stands against the Pakistanis. It is not just the Taliban, but even the population of the country considers Pakistan as their main enemy.
Prior to the situation escalating into a full-blown war, both the Pakistanis and representatives of the Taliban had met in Turkey and Qatar. Pakistan raised the issue relating to the TTP as well as the Durand Line.
While the Taliban was willing to talk about the Durand Line, it made it clear that it had not allowed the TTP to use Afghanistan as a launchpad. However, the Taliban delegation was unhappy with the tone of the Pakistani representatives. They were not treating the Taliban as equals. They were trying to dictate terms to the Taliban, and this apparently did not go down too well.
Although the Pakistanis had said then that the talks were productive, the fact is that the Taliban were unhappy with the terms as well as the tone in which they were addressed. This explains why the ceasefire remained fragile all along, an official said.
Those who follow the Taliban say that the Taliban was not ready to compromise on issues relating to the Durand Line. Experts say that the position of Afghanistan will not change at any cost. Even when Mullah Omar was in charge, he had refused to accept the Durand Line as the official international border between the two countries.
Experts say that the Mullah Omar-led regime was, in fact, more dependent on Pakistan when compared to today’s Taliban.
Officials say that the plans of effecting a regime change in Afghanistan are not something Pakistan will be able to do. Now that the local population and the Taliban are on the same page due to Pakistan's misadventure of throwing out the refugees, the road ahead for Islamabad looks tough in Afghanistan, the official also explained.