New Delhi, April 4 – Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma recently emphasized the importance of the Barak Valley in the state's electoral battleground and the area's expected role in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieving a target of 90 to 100 seats in the state Assembly, which has a total strength of 126 legislators.
In 2016, the BJP ended the Congress' 15-year rule and established its dominance in the Northeast, forming a government in Assam with support from its allies. However, since assuming power, the party has repeatedly remained at 60 seats, falling short of the halfway mark without a coalition.
With the Assam elections scheduled for April 9, the Barak Valley is one of the state's regions preparing for a fiercely competitive political battle.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP retained the two parliamentary seats of Karimganj and Silchar constituencies, having defeated the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Congress candidates, respectively, in 2019. The party also led in four of the six Assembly segments that make up the Karimganj Lok Sabha constituency and in six of the seven Vidhan Sabha seats that constitute Silchar.
Incidentally, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were held after the Election Commission completed its delimitation exercise in the state.
The upcoming Assembly election will thus be the first state election to be held after the reorganization process. Before delimitation, the Congress and AIUDF held sway in the region, where, according to the last conducted Census in 2011, Hindus constituted over 18 lakh of a total population of more than 36 lakh, Muslims about 17 lakh, Christians some 58,000, while others comprised the rest.
In percentage terms, the religious composition of the valley's population stood at Hindus comprising 50%, Muslims 48.1%, Christians 1.6%, and others 0.3%. Among districts, in 2011, Hindus were the majority in Cachar at around 60%, with Muslims making up about 38%. In Silchar, the numbers stood at 72% and 26.4% of the district's population, respectively.
Meanwhile, Muslims were the majority in Hailakandi district, constituting 60.3%, and made up 56.3% in Karimganj (now Sribhumi). Incidentally, Hailakandi and Karimganj towns have a Hindu majority, the percentage being 67.3% and about 86.6%, respectively, as of the 2011 Census.
The Chief Minister appears confident that the BJP will win the Hailakandi Assembly seat despite the opposition Congress claiming a surge in favour of its alliance bloc.
However, in the rural elections held last year, the BJP emerged as a dominant political force in Barak Valley, scoring major gains in the region. It won the polls in Cachar and Sribhumi districts, while in Hailakandi, the party shared an equal number of Zila Parishad seats. A significant challenge facing both the ruling and the opposition bloc is the potential for a split in its larger voter base.
Although a polarization based on religion may benefit the ruling party, Sarma has reiterated caution against vote splitting. If independent candidates manage to split their base, even to a small extent, the opposition bloc would stand to gain.
On the other hand, the Congress and the AIUDF, contesting separately this time, may also be affected if there is a division in minority votes. The final outcome will be known once the final results are announced on May 4.