Puducherry, March 15 The ruling AINRC-BJP coalition government will rely on Chief Minister N Rangasamy and welfare measures to secure a consecutive victory in this Union Territory, where elections to 30 Assembly seats will be held on April 9.
On the other hand, the Congress-led opposition is optimistic, encouraged by their win in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
AINRC-BJP coalition
STRENGTHS:
1. CM Rangasamy implementing a series of welfare measures, his clean image, and the government's popularity.
WEAKNESSES:
1. Allegations including corruption, failure to maintain law and order, prevalence of crimes, and the "backing" of influential political figures for a fake drug manufacturing unit.
2. AIADMK, which had formed the government (although short-lived) in 1974 and 1977, is now in a position of being a junior partner and waiting for a decision on seat allocation from the NDA, of which it is a constituent here.
OPPORTUNITIES:
1. With the BJP leading the NDA at the Centre and being a partner in the coalition ministry here, this would be a positive factor as the UT depends on the Centre for all its welfare and development-oriented programmes.
THREATS/CHALLENGES:
1. Not having achieved statehood yet, and the removal of the lone female Minister, Chandira Priyanga, from the Cabinet, and the lack of full powers for the elected government. Continued dependence on the Centre are among the issues the AINRC-BJP alliance would have to address.
2. NTK, besides the fledgling LJK and actor Vijay-led TVK, may pose a surprise challenge in some constituencies.
Congress-DMK bloc
STRENGTHS:
1. Congress has a widespread organizational presence, and the DMK has significantly improved its grassroots network in Puducherry. The DMK's well-oiled campaign machinery adds to the bloc's strength.
WEAKNESSES:
1. Congress and DMK have not clearly decided who will lead the alliance or who the Chief Ministerial candidate will be. No firm decision has been taken so far regarding seat sharing.
OPPORTUNITIES:
1. Anti-incumbency, fueled to some extent by the failure to implement the 'Best Puducherry' vision, is gaining traction.
THREATS/CHALLENGES
1. Congress' dependence on a few leaders like V Narayanasamy and V Vaithilingam.
2. Infighting within the DMK is a challenge.
3. Seat-sharing remains inconclusive.
2. NTK, LJK and TVK may pose a surprise challenge in some constituencies.
Key contestants and star constituencies:
AINRC leader and CM Rangasamy (Thattanchavadi) is an important contestant. He is likely to seek election from two constituencies that are yet to be identified. Home Minister A Namassivayam (Mannadipet) of the BJP will have to work hard, as the general opinion is that he cannot take his constituency for granted if he seeks re-election.
PCC leader Vaithilingam MP is likely to seek election from Kamaraj Nagar.
DMK's R Siva (Villiyanoor), PWD Minister K Lakshminarayanan (Raj Bhavan) are among the key candidates. R Selvam (BJP) from Manaveli is another contestant to watch out for.