New Delhi, February 24 Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur have developed the world's first three-dimensional, data-driven model to predict solar activity, contributing to space weather monitoring.
Solar activity, including solar storms, is governed by a cyclic process of intensifying and weakening of the internal dynamo, which creates the Sun's magnetic field. One cycle of solar activity, involving a peak in heightened activity and a minimum in reduced activity, typically spans about 11 years.
A large amount of charged particles, energy, and magnetic fields can be released into the Solar System during a solar storm. On Earth, the sudden influx of cosmic particles can disrupt satellite-based services and cause communication blackouts, potentially bringing modern society to a standstill.
The duo of physicists Gopal Hazra and Soumyadeep Chatterjee say that if the 3D model – the first of its kind in the world – is fed with observations of the solar surface for at least 11 years, it can estimate solar activity, also known as 'sunspot' activity, up to five years in the future. Sunspots are active regions on the Sun's surface that can trigger solar storms and solar flares.
"What will be the scenario then? How many flares, how many solar storms will occur? We can estimate, for example, based on the presence of a lot of sunspots, the possibility of a solar storm," Hazra said in a video call with