Southwest Monsoon to Arrive Early in Kerala on May 27, Says IMD

New Delhi, May 10 — The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon will hit Kerala on May 27, marking an earlier-than-usual onset compared to the normal date of June 1.​

If this forecast holds true, it will be the earliest monsoon onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when the rains began on May 23, according to historical IMD data.

Monsoon Timeline and Significance​

The southwest monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture and water resources. It typically enters Kerala by June 1, covers the entire country by July 8, and begins its retreat from northwest India around September 17, with complete withdrawal by October 15.

This year, the early onset could potentially benefit the sowing of kharif crops, providing timely rains across key agricultural zones.

Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for 2025​

In April, the IMD had already projected above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, citing the absence of El Niño conditions, which often lead to drier spells in India.

“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105% (±5%) of the long-period average of 87 cm,”
said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

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The optimistic rainfall outlook coupled with an early monsoon onset provides a promising start to the 2025 agricultural season.