Colombo, February 20 The New Zealand middle order's ability to mount a strong response when faced with the skill and variety in Pakistan's spin unit will be the deciding factor when the two sides face each other in the opening Super Eight Group 2 match of the T20 World Cup here on Saturday.
The Kiwi batters have yet to hit top gear in the ICC showpiece, except for openers Tim Seifert and Finn Allen, who have three fifties between them.
But their middle-order colleagues have not been able to back them up sufficiently, as players like Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mark Chapman, and Daryl Mitchell have struggled for consistency.
Phillips and Ravindra have each scored a fifty, but they haven't been able to build on that.
Ravindra has scored 72 runs in four matches, but 59 of them came in a single match against Canada.
The fact that they will be playing in Colombo for the first time in this tournament further complicates matters.
In contrast, Pakistan have been based in this port city since the beginning of the World Cup, and have already played two matches at the Premadasa Stadium.
Their bowlers, particularly the spinners, know the pace and length required to be effective on this slow pitch, where shot-making requires more caution than aggression.
Therefore, the New Zealand middle order should support the explosive starts from Allen and Seifert with a composed innings to take their team to a total of around 180, or while chasing a target in that vicinity.
The spinners – Usman Tariq, Abrar Ahmed, Saim Ayub, Mohammad Nawaz, and Shadab Khan – give Pakistan a distinct advantage, but they too have their own concerns in batting.
Shadab Khan (88) is their highest run-scorer, followed by Sahibzada Farhan (220), the tournament's current top run-scorer.
The Pakistan batters will need to make a bigger collective contribution against an experienced team like New Zealand.
However, none worries the Pakistan management more than Babar Azam (66 runs in four matches, strike-rate: 115.78), as the former captain is struggling to adapt to the demands of modern T20 batting.
If Babar falters again, the Pakistan management might bring in someone like Fakhar Zaman, who has been warming the benches throughout the group stage matches.
They will also consider including left-arm pacer Shaheen Shah Afridi, who was dropped for the must-win match against Namibia.
Afridi's three wickets in as many matches have come at an economy of 11.22, which is evidence of his inability to vary his pace on a slow pitch.
This is a lesson for New Zealand's pace-heavy attack.
Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy, and James Neesham have been expensive so far, and they will have to revisit their strategies here.
The quartet needs to use variations such as knuckle ball, slower bouncer, and leg cutter, which they employed sporadically in previous matches, more frequently here to gain an advantage over the Pakistan batters.
It is crucial to reduce the pressure on the spinners – Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, and part-timers Ravindra and Phillips.
Teams (from):
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Pakistan: Salman Ali Agha (c), Abrar Ahmed, Babar Azam, Faheem Ashraf, Fakhar Zaman, Khawaja Nafay, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Salman Mirza, Naseem Shah, Sahibzada Farhan, Saim Ayub, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Shadab Khan, Usman Khan, Usman Tariq.
New Zealand: Mitchell Santner (c), Finn Allen, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Jacob Duffy, Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Daryl Mitchell, James Neesham, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Tim Seifert, Ish Sodhi, Cole McConchie.
Match starts at 7 pm IST.