Chennai, March 15 The April 23 Assembly election is crucial for the AIADMK, which is determined to re-establish its rule in Tamil Nadu after being in the opposition for five years.
In a charged political atmosphere, especially with the sudden entry of actor Vijay in the electoral fray and the ruling DMK aggressively pushing for a consecutive term, 71-year-old AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami launched his public outreach program, "Makkalaikappom Tamilagathai Meetpom" (Let's save people, retrieve Tamil Nadu), to lead his party to power, and has been actively campaigning against the DMK, while also rejoining forces with former ally BJP.
Having lost all elections in the state since 2019, he is keen to reverse this trend for the 54-year-old party, even bringing breakaway AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran, into the AIADMK-led NDA.
STRENGTHS:
1. Palaniswami has emerged as the undisputed leader of the party, with the other claimant, expelled leader O Panneerselvam, now having joined the DMK.
2. Founded by the legendary MG Ramachandran, fondly known as MGR, the AIADMK retains its support base across all sections, including fishermen and minorities.
3. The party has a strong organizational structure, with its cadres actively involved at the booth level.
4. The AIADMK has taken the lead with staggered release of poll promises, including a one-time assistance of Rs 10,000 for people. The party's invocation of the legacy of Amma (late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa) may tilt the scales in its favour.
5. The alliance with PMK and AMMK strengthens the vote base, particularly in northern and central Tamil Nadu, and the presence of BJP, particularly in the communally sensitive Kanyakumari district and certain other pockets, could be an asset.
WEAKNESSES:
1. The AIADMK has been experiencing a series of setbacks with Panneerselvam joining the rival DMK combine. This may upset the party's calculations in Theni district and certain pockets dominated by the Mukkulathor community.
2. The party failed to retain Premalatha Vijayakanth-led DMDK, which has joined the DMK-led alliance.
3. Senior leader K A Sengottaiyan joining the TVK may also be a setback to the party in Erode district, which is AIADMK's traditional Kongu bastion in western TN.
OPPORTUNITIES:
1. The party's alliance with the BJP, the Vanniyar community-dominated PMK, and AMMK, makes it a more viable force in targeting the DMK on anti-incumbency, rising crime, women safety, revision of power tariff and property tax, and corruption allegations against state ministers.
2. Strong leadership under Palaniswami who doesn't mince words in targeting the DMK; his anti-CAA stance may polarize minority votes and give the party a secular image.
3. Safeguarding state rights over the Cauvery water issue. Palaniswami introduced the Kudimaramathu scheme to restore minor irrigation tanks and lakes in the state.
4. Strong campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who invoke the legacy of AIADMK stalwarts MGR and Jayalalithaa, and against DMK's family rule.
THREATS/CHALLENGES:
1. The performance of the DMK government on welfare initiatives and in attracting investments.
2. DMK president and Chief Minister M K Stalin establishing himself as a dominant political personality since 2021, focusing on welfare schemes and development.
3. With DMK retaining its major ally, the Congress, and welcoming former AIADMK leaders including five-time legislator and former CM Panneerselvam, R Vaithialingam, P H Manoj Pandian, and ties with the DMDK, this gives the party-led Secular Progressive Alliance an edge. It presents a strong and unified alliance.
4. Actor-politician Vijay's ability to attract first-time voters and young voters may also turn out to be disadvantageous to the AIADMK to a certain extent.
5. Former AIADMK leaders Sengottaiyan and J C D Prabhakar joining the TVK adds to its strength. Vijay may split the anti-incumbency votes.
6. The aggressive posture of actor-politician Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) vis-a-vis Tamil nationalism and former AIADMK leader V K Sasikala may cut into the NDA votes in a few pockets.