In Kolkata, April 11, shifting loyalties, the BJP's strengthened organizational control, and allegations of skewed voter deletions in Nandigram have added layers of intrigue to the high-stakes contest in this key constituency, making it one of the most closely watched in West Bengal's assembly elections.
On May 2, 2021, when Nandigram's returning officer announced BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari's victory over TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee by a razor-thin margin of 1,956 votes, it marked a crucial chapter in the state's politics.
Adhikari secured over 1.1 lakh votes, humbling the state's most recognized leader and increasing the BJP's vote share by over 1 lakh from the 2016 elections, despite not having control over even one of the 17 gram panchayats or the two panchayat samitis that make up the Nandigram constituency.
He switched from the TMC to the BJP on December 19, 2020, and had only three months to change the situation in his favor.
Over the past five years, a significant amount of water has flowed down the Haldi River, which surrounds Nandigram, with the BJP now controlling 11 out of the 17 gram panchayats and both panchayat samitis of Nandigram I and II blocks, giving Adhikari, the leader of the opposition in the assembly, a crucial advantage in the 2026 elections, observers say.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP significantly improved its performance in the Nandigram assembly segment, securing a lead of 8,200 votes and a 49.49 per cent vote share compared to TMC's 45.87 per cent.
Nandigram, the site of the 2007 land acquisition unrests, is widely recognized as one of the key political terrains in West Bengal, which propelled Mamata Banerjee to power in 2011, ending 34 years of Left rule in the state.
The March 14 police firing on villagers protesting the state's land acquisition for a proposed chemical hub resulted in 14 deaths and subsequent widespread political repercussions.
"Adhikari has been associated with this constituency since 2006. During Modi's rally at Kolkata's Brigade Parade Grounds on March 14 this year, the anniversary of the Nandigram firing incident, Adhikari made it a point to be present at the site, garland the martyrs' columns at two locations, and deliver speeches before heading to the state capital, despite 15 years having passed since that day. I doubt if any other BJP leader would do this," an observer said, requesting anonymity.
In a strategic counter to Adhikari's political dominance in the region, the TMC has fielded Pabitra Kar, a former BJP member long considered a close aide and trusted lieutenant of the LoP. Kar joined the TMC just hours before his candidature was announced, making Nandigram a 'Bhumiputra versus Bhumiputra' (local versus local) battleground.
His wife, Shiuli, a former pradhan of the Boyal II gram panchayat, also followed suit. Ironically, Kar, then a BJP leader, was an accused in the murder of a TMC worker ahead of the 2021 polls and was subsequently arrested.
The TMC, which secured the seat three times from 2009-16, is desperate to regain it this time. The party's de facto second-in-command, Abhishek Banerjee, said he was personally monitoring developments on the ground.
Addressing a workers' meet in Nandigram on March 25, he urged them to take responsibility for the constituency for the next 25 days, and he would be responsible for the seat for the next five years.
In a grassroots outreach program, he operationalized two 'Sebashraay' camps in Nandigram earlier this year to provide medical services to the people and address the alleged healthcare gaps in the region.
Pralay Pal, a close aide of Adhikari managing his poll campaign in the seat, claimed that the TMC would suffer in the upcoming polls, not just because of the BJP's efforts but also due to factional disputes within the ruling party.
"The hype surrounding Pabitra Kar is a big joke. Since he is a turncoat, the TMC hopes to attract some votes from the BJP. While that is unlikely to happen, the disgruntled TMC old-timers, who held the party's organization in Nandigram, will now sabotage him. We only need to sit back and watch," Pal said.
Pal, however, conceded that of the two blocks comprising the seat, Nandigram I posed a more challenging situation for the saffron camp.
"Five of the 10 areas in Nandigram I are Muslim-dominated. The minorities in block II are fewer and more evenly distributed. The BJP has always struggled in block I, and the deficit is offset by the gains we secure in block II, adding to our overall lead," he said.
Findings from an analysis of SIR deletion data in Nandigram constituency by Sabar Institute, a Kolkata-based public policy research organization, revealed a striking pattern of Muslims, who make up about 25 per cent of the population of the seat, accounting for 95.5 per cent of removals from the supplementary lists.
In contrast, only 4.5 per cent of non-Muslims were removed from the rolls, according to the study, which is based on EC data.
"This alarming disproportionality in the deletion of Muslim voters was found only during the adjudication phase. We found that the ASDD (Absent, Shifted, Dead, Duplicate) deletions during the enumeration phase in December, around 33 per cent, broadly aligned with the 25 per cent population share of the minorities," Sabar Institute Director Sabir Ahamed said.
"It is clear that these are targeted deletions of mapped voters on flimsy grounds, using biased AI tools," he alleged.
CPI(M) youth leader Minakshi Mukherjee had tried her luck in Nandigram in the 2021 state polls, but bowed out with less than 3 per cent of the vote share. The Left has, interestingly, returned the seat this year to CPI, the traditional contenders from Nandigram, with Shanti Giri as its nominee.
Nandigram goes to the polls in the first phase of elections in Bengal on April 23.