Kolkata, March 21 Disputes over ticket distribution among parties, combined with the SIR (Special Intensive Revision) process, have added a new layer of uncertainty to West Bengal's political landscape, raising questions about party unity and electoral strategies ahead of the assembly elections.
Shortly after candidate lists were announced, both the ruling TMC and the opposition BJP experienced protests, resignations, and discontent among party members and leaders who were denied tickets – a common occurrence in Bengal elections. However, analysts say that such resistance could have more significant electoral consequences this time.
This unrest comes at a politically sensitive time, as the Election Commission's SIR has led to widespread scrutiny and removal of voter names, a development that political observers believe could alter the electoral landscape in several closely contested constituencies.
From the ruling TMC to the opposition BJP, simmering resentment among disgruntled leaders and grassroots workers has exposed the internal divisions that often accompany large-scale electoral changes.
Along with the dissent and organizational friction within parties, the changes in voter rolls could make booth-level mobilization and campaign coordination even more important than in previous elections, analysts say.
Within the TMC, the scale of candidate changes is one of the largest the party has undertaken in recent assembly elections.
The party dropped 74 sitting MLAs, nearly a third of its legislative strength, while announcing candidates for 291 of the 294 seats, signaling a calculated effort by the TMC leadership to counter incumbency, introduce new faces, and adjust local political dynamics ahead of the crucial contest.
In Malda's Harishchandrapur, state minister and three-time MLA Tajmul Hossain accused the party of "betrayal" after he was replaced by Matiur Rahman, who had contested the same seat as a BJP candidate in the 2021 assembly elections.
"I have worked for the party for 15 years. Someone suddenly gets the ticket. The party has betrayed me, and it will have to face the consequences," Hossain said. His supporters went further, alleging that the seat had been "sold for money," a charge the party has not officially responded to.
Further north in Jalpaiguri's Rajganj, MLA Khageswar Roy resigned from his post as district party chairman after the party fielded Asian Games gold medallist Swapna Barman from the constituency.
In North 24 Parganas' Amdanga, protests erupted after three-time MLA Rafiqur Rahman was denied renomination and replaced by Peerzada Kasem Siddiqui. Supporters blocked roads, set tires on fire, and raised slogans demanding that the party reconsider its decision.
"I remain a worker of the party, but I urge the leadership to reconsider the decision. I do not know how successful we will be this time," Rahman said.
Discontent also surfaced in Hooghly's Chinsurah, where the party nominated youth leader and IT cell chief Debangshu Bhattacharya in place of three-time MLA Asit Mazumdar.
Mazumdar publicly expressed disappointment and hinted at withdrawing from politics.
However, Bhattacharya struck a conciliatory tone, describing Mazumdar as "a father figure" and expressing hope that he would receive the veteran leader's support during the campaign.
The BJP has also faced resistance over candidate selection.
Party workers staged protests outside the BJP's state headquarters in Kolkata after the announcement of the second list of candidates, alleging that grassroots leaders had been overlooked while selecting nominees. Some protesters warned that they would not allow campaigning by certain candidates unless the leadership reconsidered its choices.
BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya said, "We understand the sentiment of our workers, but the decision of the central leadership is final, and all of us have to abide by it."
Even the CPI(M), traditionally regarded as a highly disciplined organization, has witnessed signs of internal friction. In Nadia's Kaliganj, a section of its workers vandalized a local party office after the Left Front nominated Sabina Yasmin, the mother of a child killed in poll-related violence last year, as its candidate. The party later expelled seven members for their involvement.
Political analysts say that potential electoral consequences of ticket-related dissent may be sharper this time because of the simultaneous changes in voter rolls under the SIR exercise.
Data compiled across the state's 294 assembly constituencies suggests that in more than 200 segments, the number of voters affected by deletions or placed under scrutiny during the revision process exceeds the victory margins recorded in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In at least 120 assembly constituencies, the number of deleted voters alone is higher than the Lok Sabha leading margin in those seats, while in around 40 constituencies it exceeds the margins recorded in the 2021 assembly polls.
"In a scenario where victory margins are narrow, the strength of booth-level organization becomes decisive. If sections of local leaders or cadres remain inactive because of resentment over ticket distribution, it can influence turnout and mobilisation," political analyst Biswanath Chakraorty said.
In the 2021 assembly polls, the TMC won around 45 seats with margins of less than 8,000 votes, while the BJP secured nearly 20 segments within similar margins, underlining how relatively small shifts in votes can determine outcomes in a tightly contested election.
For the TMC, the leadership is banking on Mamata Banerjee's personal popularity and welfare-driven messaging to override local resentment, while for the BJP, seeking to expand its footprint after emerging as the principal opposition in 2021, maintaining organizational cohesion across districts will be crucial.
West Bengal will go to the polls in two phases on April 23 and 29.