In Murshidabad, a district in West Bengal where Muslims make up about two-thirds of the population, the ongoing communal tensions and the removal of names from the electoral rolls under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) are seen as key factors that will determine the outcome of the upcoming assembly elections.
After the electoral rolls were updated following the SIR, over 11 lakh voters in Murshidabad were placed under scrutiny. This represented approximately 20% of the district's 55 lakh voters.
Political analysts believe that while the SIR removals may put the Trinamool Congress in a difficult position, voters who have been cleared will likely support the incumbent party against the BJP.
In addition to this, the recurring communal violence in the district since 2025 has dominated the political discourse, and this could be a decisive factor.
On April 12, 2025, a mob attacked Harogobinda Das's house in Samsergunj, injuring him and his son, and then stood guard until they died.
What began as protests against the Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2025, quickly escalated into violence in Jangipur, Samserganj, Dhulian, and Suti. Protesters blocked highways and set fire to police vehicles.
Homes were also set ablaze, and reports emerged of the mob cutting off the water supply to prevent fires.
The Calcutta High Court intervened, ordering the deployment of central forces, and the state issued prohibitory orders and temporarily suspended internet access to control the violence.
Around 60 FIRs were filed, and approximately 300 people were arrested. Hundreds of victims fled their homes and sought refuge in the neighboring Malda district.
Even a year after the incident, the situation remains tense. The Trinamool Congress won the Samsergunj, Suti, and Jangipur seats in the 2021 elections with significant margins.
Another incident occurred on March 27 in Jangipur's Raghunathgunj area, where a Ram Navami rally turned violent.
A mob ransacked shops, fruit stalls, and food outlets owned by Muslims and set several of these establishments on fire.
Jakir Hossain, the TMC's two-term MLA in Jangipur, who is seeking re-election, believes the unrest is a deliberate attempt by the BJP.
"The BJP is trying to consolidate Hindu votes by creating communal tension in the region. They are unaware of the potential consequences," Hossain stated.
He alleges that the BJP is engineering these incidents to address internal factionalism within the party.
Hossain won the 2021 elections, securing 53.65% of the votes. The BJP received 22.17% of the vote share.
This time, advocate Chitto Mukherjee, a political newcomer, is contesting from the Jangipur seat against Hossain.
In Samsergunj, the TMC has nominated Nur Alam, a local entrepreneur who recently joined the party.
It remains to be seen whether the ruling party's decision to replace the sitting MLA for 10 years, Amirul Islam, with another candidate is related to the violence in the region, or whether it's a response to anti-incumbency.
Interestingly, Islam's name appeared on the poll panel's "under adjudication" list after the electoral roll update, which is a common occurrence for many candidates in the upcoming elections.
"I have been receiving positive feedback during my door-to-door campaigns. I am focusing on Mamata Banerjee's welfare schemes and ensuring that these benefits reach the marginalized," Islam said.
His rival from the saffron camp, Sasthi Charan Ghosh, a veteran of the Jan Sangh, worked as a senior BJP functionary in Murshidabad, has a strong base in Dhulian, the nerve center of Samsergunj.
"My campaign focuses on the TMC's corruption. People are disgusted with the TMC. Issues such as inadequate drainage, dilapidated healthcare, poor road networks, river erosion, and unemployment are major concerns. I am offering the BJP's alternative development model," Ghosh said.
In the Suti seat, the TMC has nominated incumbent MLA Emani Biswas, who will contest against BJP's Mahabir Ghosh, a new face in the BJP's electoral politics.
Biswas won the Suti seat from the Congress in 2021, securing nearly 59% of the vote share. His BJP rival received only half of the votes Biswas got.
However, these results are unlikely to change the outcome this time, given the massive voter roll purge in Murshidabad.
Among the assembly constituencies in the district, Samsergunj and Suti have the highest number of cases, with 1.2 lakh and 1.1 lakh respectively.
"The massive SIR deletions are likely to put the TMC in a difficult position in these three constituencies. Even if we acknowledge that Muslims have rallied behind the TMC against the BJP, the results this time will be close," said Maidul Islam, a professor of Political Science at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Kolkata.
"However, this is just a matter of arithmetic. From a political perspective, it is likely that the TMC will benefit from the support of those voters who passed the SIR filter. I don't think they will vote for any other non-BJP party in the region," he added.