India’s Excess Mortality During 2020–21 Lower Than US, Russia and Italy: Official CRS Data

India’s Excess Mortality During 2020–21 Lower Than US, Russia, and Italy: Official CRS Data​

New Delhi, May 10 — India recorded a cumulative excess mortality of 9.3% over expected deaths during 2020 and 2021, significantly lower than several developed nations including the US, Italy, and Russia, according to official sources citing the latest Civil Registration System (CRS) data.

CRS Reveals Accurate Death Registration Trends​

Sources said the CRS, India’s mandatory death registration system under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 1969, has witnessed an increasing trend in documented deaths over the years—even before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths during a crisis over and above what would be expected under normal circumstances. Analysts evaluated CRS data using a baseline average growth rate of 6.42% annually from 2016 to 2019 to calculate expected deaths for the pandemic years.

Expected deaths based on this trend were:

• 2020: 81,31,869
• 2021: 86,54,185

In comparison, the actual registered deaths stood at:

• 2020: 81,15,882
• 2021: 1,02,24,506

This resulted in excess deaths of -15,987 in 2020 and 15,70,321 in 2021, totalling 15,54,334 excess deaths over the two years. This translates to 1,249 excess deaths per one million population, representing a 9.3% increase over the expected numbers.

Comparison with Global Excess Mortality​

India’s excess mortality percentage was notably lower than in many other countries:

• US: 17.6% (3,021 deaths/million)
• Italy: 11.8% (2,573 deaths/million)
• UK: 11.6% (1,874 deaths/million)
• Russia: 29.9% (7,240 deaths/million)
• Mexico: 43.6% (5,217 deaths/million)
• Brazil: 12.6% (1,820 deaths/million)
• France: 6.7% (1,281 deaths/million)
• Germany: 5.3% (1,214 deaths/million)
• Canada: 5.2% (825 deaths/million)

Officials emphasized that these figures include not only direct COVID-19 fatalities (4,81,080 officially reported in India by end-2021), but also unreported cases and deaths due to indirect pandemic effects or other causes.

Addressing Higher Global Estimates​

Government sources countered previous global modelling reports, including one from the WHO that estimated India’s excess deaths at 47 lakh, and another study citing 41 lakh. They argued that these projections were based on modelling rather than on actual death registration data.

"CRS data, reflecting high registration coverage and accounting for the secular trend, gives a far lower and more accurate estimate," a source said.

Vaccination Drive Credited with Saving Lives​

Officials highlighted India’s extensive pandemic response, including testing, treatment, public awareness, and especially vaccination. Over 220 crore vaccine doses were administered nationwide, with 145 crore given in 2021 alone.

A report in The Lancet credited India’s vaccination campaign with saving 34 lakh lives in 2021.

Why Death Registrations Have Increased​

The secular rise in registered deaths has been attributed to a combination of factors:

• Larger population size
• Improved reporting infrastructure
• Greater public awareness
• Mandatory registration for legal and social services such as pensions, property transfers, and COVID-19 death compensation

These factors, authorities said, helped ensure that the CRS remains a reliable source for mortality statistics.

About CRS​

The Civil Registration System is a universal and legally binding framework for recording births and deaths in India. State-level registrars compile and submit data to the Registrar General of India, which publishes it in the annual vital statistics report.