The 13th parliamentary elections in Bangladesh mark a return to "genuine multiparty politics" after years of contested or largely one-sided elections, accompanied by a referendum that endorsed sweeping constitutional reforms. However, the victorious Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) now faces the challenge of addressing deep-seated concerns in a nation scarred by political violence.
With over two-thirds of the seats, the BNP is expected to tackle issues ranging from corruption allegations and minority concerns to the anxieties of Awami League supporters and rising youth unemployment. Economic stability, export revival, and the management of trade agreements are also priorities.
According to a report titled "Bangladesh’s Political Reset and the Road Ahead" by the International Centre for Peace Studies, the BNP's "Sobar Agey Bangladesh" doctrine will be tested amid strained India ties, stalled development projects, and upcoming water-sharing negotiations. The party's ability to navigate these pressures will shape Bangladesh’s political trajectory.
The 13th parliamentary elections restore multiparty competition, a feature historically characteristic of Bangladesh's political transitions, except for the controversial 1996 election to the Fifth National Assembly and the 2014 and 2024 elections under the Awami League. While the 2018 election was formally multiparty, it was widely seen as rigged in favor of the Awami League. Therefore, the latest electoral exercise is seen as a significant step towards rebuilding public trust in the democratic process.
This political transition has also been accompanied by a referendum on constitutional reforms, commonly referred to as the July Charter. The reform proposals were divided into four categories and put to a public vote, where citizens were asked to choose "Yes" or "No".
According to final figures, 48,074,429 votes (68.1 per cent) were in favor of the proposals, while 22,565,627 (31.9 per cent) opposed them.
The BNP-led coalition's decisive victory, securing 212 seats out of 297, gives it a strong advantage in shaping the proposed reforms, particularly those where the party had previously expressed reservations. Key areas of focus will include the differences between the BNP and Jamaat, which is expected to lead the opposition alliance with 77 seats.
At the same time, the report highlights that the BNP now faces a significant responsibility due to its two-thirds majority. How the party manages political, economic, and social expectations will determine not only the country's direction but also the future of the BNP under the leadership of Tarique Rahman.
On the domestic front, the BNP needs to address perceptions of corruption, extortion, and the occupation of small businesses within its own ranks. Although the party has expelled around 7,000 members due to serious corruption charges, it must avoid repeating the alleged excesses of the outgoing Awami League government, which faced accusations of corruption, authoritarian conduct, and curbing media freedom.
The party must also remain sensitive to the interests of Awami League supporters and minority communities who participated in the election.
Furthermore, the party needs to address the aspirations of a politically engaged youth population. With unemployment a pressing concern, the report suggests that the government must create meaningful employment opportunities for young people.
The economy demands sustained attention. While the interim administration may have stabilized certain indicators, a stronger push is required. Exports, the backbone of Bangladesh's economy, have declined, underscoring the urgency of corrective measures.
The recent trade agreement with the United States has also generated debate. The arrangement requires Bangladesh to import cotton yarn from the US for garments exported back to the American market, raising concerns, along with other provisions concluded under the interim regime.
A proposed agreement with DP World, a UAE-based port operator, to manage the New Mooring Container Terminal at Chittagong Port, which had sparked a workers' strike, has been put on hold but is expected to be revisited.
The report also suggests that the BNP's foreign policy outlook will be guided by its "Sobar Agey Bangladesh" slogan. Its manifesto states that beyond its borders, Bangladesh has "friends, not masters," emphasizing sovereignty, national interest, security, and the will of the people. While the party has stressed 'Equality', 'Mutual Respect', 'Trust', and understanding in relations with neighbours, particularly India, other political actors have also highlighted dignity as a cornerstone of foreign engagement.
However, it observes that it remains unclear how the BNP will navigate a complex regional and global environment where bargaining and compromise often define statecraft. The party has raised issues such as border killings and cross-border push-ins, and its leaders have spoken of taking legal action against foreign nationals residing illegally in Bangladesh.
"It is important for Bangladesh and India to look at the issue of illegal migration and trafficking that takes place across the porous border. Most significantly, the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, signed in 1996 for thirty years, is going to expire this year. Water sharing issues will dominate India-Bangladesh relations, and there would be pressure on BNP to sign the Teesta," Pattanaik wrote.
India has extended substantial support to Bangladesh through development initiatives, including an $8 billion line of credit and an additional $500 million credit line for defence cooperation.
Following the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, several Indian technical experts, including project engineers, left Bangladesh amid security concerns and anti-India sentiment.
Shortly before the elections, nine senior officials from India’s National Thermal Power Corporation deputed to the Rampal joint India-Bangladesh Maitree Power Station reportedly departed over fears of unrest. The resumption of these projects will be significant.
Meanwhile, the proposed Indian economic zone projects at Mirsarai and Mongla were cancelled in January by the interim administration after remaining stalled for nearly a decade despite land allocation, the report said.
Overall, Pattanaik concluded by noting that India-Bangladesh ties require careful recalibration. While both the BNP and the new opposition have underlined the importance of relations with India, rebuilding trust and forging a durable partnership will depend on how both sides address existing deficits and emerging challenges.
