February 12, New Delhi — According to an SBI Research report, India's trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion annually. This growth has been driven by increasing exports and higher import potential.
The agreement with the US, following a series of trade deals with the EU and the UK, positions India in a unique strategic advantage, allowing the country to gain significantly.
The report states that India's export of $1.36 billion in agricultural commodities will receive zero additional US duty access.
India's export of agricultural commodities to the US is also expected to increase, with 75% now subject to zero tariffs.
Indian exporters could boost their exports of the top 15 items to the US by $97 billion annually, potentially leading to a total export value of over $100 billion annually after recent tariff reductions.
The trade surplus is already showing strong signs of growth. It reached $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26.
This additional export push could help further increase the surplus beyond $90 billion annually, potentially adding 1.1% to India's GDP.